What will the dollar exchange rate be in September 2021: expert opinions

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-01-18 00:05

While experts are talking about inevitable fluctuations in the rate of the Russian national currency towards a slight increase or decrease, forecast agencies assure the average layman of the need to purchase foreign currency. Homebrew analysts advise buying euros, dollars, and leaving a third in rubles. But in fact, the forecast of what the dollar exchange rate will be in September 2021 is influenced by too many factors to talk about it even a month before the deadline.

How the situation with quotes is developing

The Central Bank of Russia does not draw up forecasted exchange rates. It would be a waste of time trying to find out what the dollar exchange rate will be in September 2021 or any other month. The key player in the currency market is the state, and not the owners of exchangers or financiers, and even more so not ordinary people with their small savings.

There is no time and there is no need to make forecasts of the Central Bank, and here's why:

• he himself can influence the quotes by setting the key rate and daily exchange rates;
• in some cases, a weak ruble is a deliberate policy to fill the budget by selling the dollar to the population;
• any currency can be influenced on a daily basis by many external and internal factors;
• the rate is influenced by political events, world prices and excitement on the stock exchange;
• it is impossible to take into account all the factors of influence, so no one can absolutely accurately predict what the dollar exchange rate will be in September 2021.

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Approximate figures

When asked what the dollar exchange rate will be in September 2021, Monetary Center experts confidently predict a range from 73, 14 to 72, 11 rubles. The fall already at the beginning of September will be 1, 4%.

To a large extent, a not very favorable forecast for the dollar can be traced in the Finance Ministry's intention to abandon the dollar's presence in the structure of the NWF. Presumably, this decision is due to the disconnection from the payment in dollars of Venezuela and Iran. Russia is ahead of the curve in order to exclude the possibility of blackmail. However, it is possible that this is happening against the background of talks about the introduction of a common currency for Mexico, the United States and Canada - amero.

The economies of these countries can affect the Amero rate downward, but it will be calculated at the rate of 1:10, which means that everyone who has dollars in their hands will survive the devaluation of their savings. Amero is introduced to diminish the enormous external debt of the States.

A. Shirokov, head of the INKhP RAS, is confident that there will be no sharp strengthening of the ruble due to the serious geopolitical pressure that is being exerted on it. The opinions of experts from other agencies and financial institutions are diverse, but they are confident that the refusal of the American currency in the NWF is dictated by security considerations, and is justified if there is no ban on the circulation of the dollar on the territory of the Russian Federation:

• A. Proklov from the NKR rating agency speaks of a significant influence on the ruble of the situation on the world market of raw materials and the pace of economic recovery.
• Sberbank analysts predict a smooth, but not dramatic decline in the dollar and euro, starting in the fall of 2021. August turbulence is a seasonal phenomenon, while the holiday season is in full swing, and some major players are resting.
• The Central Bank has published calculations based on the analysis of indicators for previous years, but the breakdown in quotations is large - from 71 to 78 rubles / dollar.

Sberbank experts are confident that by the end of September the dollar will cost around 72 rubles, and the Russian national currency will strengthen its position. The increase will be around 2%, as there is discussion of increasing investments in the liquid part of the National Security Fund. A positive solution to this issue will undoubtedly affect the strengthening of the ruble.

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Approximate forecasts

On the Web, you can find numerous predictions about what the dollar exchange rate will be in September 2021. They range from unreasonably high from the Prognozex agency (prudently warning that they are 75% correct and the situation may change at any time) to the opinion of analysts of small and large banks, who are confident that the ruble can strengthen to 69 per dollar. The table shows the dollar quotes for September, but no one can guarantee that there will be no changes in the geopolitical situation that will radically affect one or another currency:

Period	Growth deviations	Expected decline
September 2-7		-1.13 to -0.11
September 8-17	+1.38 to +0.16
September 20-29		-1.06 to -0.18
September 30th	+0, 31
Saturday Sunday	Course at Friday level	Course at Friday level

The variability of opinion about the rise and fall of quotations in September is still not as noticeable as about the situation until the end of the year. The figures for the increase to 80 rubles / dollar are named. already in November and the fall in the rate of the American currency to 63 rubles. by the end of the year. A. Morina has categorically stated that the ruble is practically independent of the cost of oil, but A. Osin is sure that the response of the ruble, although weakened, is still noticeable. Therefore, Morina gives forecasted figures of 71-72 rubles, and her opponent predicts up to 80 rubles per dollar at the beginning of autumn, reducing, however, it to 64 rubles. at the end of this year.

Outcomes

Forecasting the exchange rate is a rather complex process in which you need to take into account external and internal factors that can affect quotes. Experts, using the same arguments, call numbers from 71 to 78 rubles / dollar. Both the dollar and the ruble have risks and strengths, they must be taken into account in the analysis.

The central bank provides figures based on the dynamics of past years. Optimists have increased in the ranks of Russian analysts, the country's economy has shown less significant rates of decline, unexpectedly high growth.