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What will be the dollar exchange rate in June 2020 in Russia
What will be the dollar exchange rate in June 2020 in Russia

Video: What will be the dollar exchange rate in June 2020 in Russia

Video: What will be the dollar exchange rate in June 2020 in Russia
Video: Russian ruble hits record low, U.S. dollar rises following Russia attack on Ukraine 2024, March
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In Russia, in the light of recent events, many news are devoted to the exchange rate of the dollar and the euro, their growth against the ruble. We studied the opinions of experts on how the situation will develop by months. Let us tell you what forecast they give for June 2020.

The situation with the dollar today - the reasons for the jump in the exchange rate

On Monday, March 9, the ruble collapsed, which had previously shown some stability. All forecasts made earlier, during 2019 and in January 2020, about what the dollar exchange rate in Russia will be, have lost their relevance.

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Interesting! What will happen to the ruble in the near future: expert opinion 2 hours ago, latest news 2020

This always happens, since the dollar exchange rate depends not only on the economy and politics, but also on unexpected circumstances, which are impossible to predict. Back in February 2020, the opinions of experts were based on expectations from the signing by the Russian Federation of another deal with the oil-producing countries.

Few could have imagined that in less than a month Russia would simply not attend the meeting and would refuse to sign new restrictions. The dilemma in both cases played into the hands of the United States, which forced the entire world to contain production volumes by starting shale oil production.

The signing meant that they would continue dumping, throwing new lots of minerals onto the market, the refusal meant the dollar's growth amid falling prices for oil products. The country's government preferred the second option. While independent experts accused Russia of breaking an important agreement, falling oil prices and predicting a global crisis in conjunction with the devaluation of the national currency, interesting circumstances emerged.

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A. Yakovenko, rector of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, spoke about them in a rather veiled form:

  1. The fall in oil prices was so inevitable due to the coronavirus epidemic, which until February was not particularly taken into account when making forecasts. Western countries regarded the alarming situation as a private affair of China, although it was it that led to a decrease in demand for fuel - the total volume of population migrations around the planet decreased, the tourism industry fell into decline, and the need for gasoline decreased.
  2. A global recession was predicted in the world, but the emergence of the virus made interesting adjustments - against the background of falling tourism revenues from airlines and countries focused on the flow of visitors, pharmaceutical companies won.
  3. China has managed to cope with the epidemic and is starting to build up the previous pace of the economy, but the coronavirus has moved across the planet, and this may hit the rating of the European authorities in the event of an insufficiently effective fight against the pandemic. For the States, this is not particularly relevant, since the elections are due to take place only in November 2020. But Russia's refusal to participate in yet another deal to limit the deal means a blow to the clearly emerging globalization.
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Alexander Yakovenko is sure that the combination of the above factors will not only allow the stock markets to withstand, preventing the options of 1998 and 2008, but will also become the starting point for economic recovery.

First of all, the positive dynamics will affect Russia, which has become little dependent on the instruments of globalization and external demand, and partly not of its own free will, but because of the sanctions imposed many times.

He figuratively called what is happening on the planet a re-dealing of cards, the layout of which can now be beneficial to other players.

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Interesting! Forecast of the 2020 crisis for Russia

What is expected in early summer

Most experts are confident that some rise in the Russian ruble will be outlined in May 2020. There are still three standard options as to how things will unfold in June:

  1. Optimistic. D. Popov, chief analyst at PSB, is confident that the situation will stabilize in April, but negative trends will continue until June, and already in the middle of the year, as a result of the actions of the authorities and the Central Bank, a gradual decline in the dollar rate in the Russian Federation may begin. For this, there are regulatory mechanisms within the country and objective prerequisites in the countries of the European Union and the United States.
  2. Realistic. He also tends to optimize by the end of the year, but he does not give a concrete answer to the question of what the course will be in June in Russia. Much depends on the existing risks - new sanctions, reduced investment, the key rate of the Central Bank. World analysts assure that the stability of the ruble in June will be relative, but they are afraid to make accurate forecasts of what rate will be. The only consensus is that a rapid take-off should not be expected either in May or in June. Strengthening of positions is likely only by the end of the year.
  3. Pessimistic. Citing Russia's dependence on the commodity market and oil prices, the coronavirus epidemic and the weakness of the Russian economy, many experts voiced a negative forecast, followed by the opposition press. The prediction options are in the range of 72-90 rubles per dollar. Inflation, the sale of foreign currency in the domestic market amid panic among the population, politics and the real cost of services are considered as arguments.

Some hope is given by the undeniable confidence of banking analysts in the imminent stabilization of the ruble at the end of 2020. The panic arose from the fact that ordinary citizens were not privy to the intricacies of diplomacy and the world economy, for them the collapse of the ruble was an unpleasant surprise.

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Summarize

  1. The diversity of expectations in the dollar rate for June is understandable.
  2. There are many circumstances that are impossible to predict.
  3. The growth of the ruble may be facilitated by an increase in oil prices (low prices are not beneficial not only for Russia) and a gradual end to the pandemic.
  4. The fall can be provoked by unforeseen factors.
  5. Russia has declared that it is ready for any scenario within 4-6 years.

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