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How much will the dollar cost by the end of 2020 in Russia
How much will the dollar cost by the end of 2020 in Russia

Video: How much will the dollar cost by the end of 2020 in Russia

Video: How much will the dollar cost by the end of 2020 in Russia
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The rapid fall of the ruble against the dollar, which has been observed for several months, has finally been halted. Experts told whether the Russian currency will be able to keep its positions at current levels, and how much the dollar will cost by the end of 2020 in Russia.

US dollar against other currencies

Against the background of other currencies, the dollar looks quite confident now. Against the euro, it rose by 0.35%, against the British pound - by 0.8%, the Japanese yen lost about 0.25%, and the value of the Australian dollar fell by almost 1%.

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The ruble, on the contrary, showed a slight increase and, according to Dmitry Polevoy from LOCKO-Invest, it will maintain its positions for several more days, trading in the range of 76.5-77.5 rubles per unit.

“Even in spite of the fact that most of the EM currencies are declining, our currency managed, albeit just a little, to strengthen. The resumed growth of the dollar against major world currencies weakened EM again. But we believe that the upcoming tax period in Russia will moderately support the ruble. Therefore, if the foreign policy background does not worsen much in the near future, and the price of oil remains approximately at the same level as now, the dollar will hardly rise above 75.50 per ruble,”the analyst suggested.

Reasons for the strengthening of the dollar against the ruble

According to experts, the weakening of the Russian unit, which began at 62 RUB per USD and reached 78 RUB, is due to many factors, the main of which was the drop in oil prices amid the pandemic. Investors' concern was also caused by the increased risks of a new package of sanctions by the European Union and the United States.

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Now the main focus is on the upcoming US presidential elections, scheduled for November 3. The further behavior of the "American" will depend on their outcome. According to a poll, Democratic candidate Joe Biden is an order of magnitude ahead of incumbent President Donald Trump.

For Russia, according to financiers, the victory of the Democrats will mean a toughening of anti-Russian policy and the implementation of a new sanctions package. This could push the ruble down further.

National currency support

After a protracted peak, the national currency gradually began to return to pre-crisis levels. The situation was stabilized by increasing the volume of interventions by the regulator. Now the Central Bank sells more than 5 billion rubles of currency every day, which is almost 4 times higher than the September figures.

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According to Anton Greenstein, a leading analyst at Hamilton, the Central Bank was forced to intervene when the dollar rate approached the psychologically important mark of 80 RUB per unit. Otherwise, sales would begin, which entailed short-term spikes up to 95-100.

The Ministry of Finance also supported the ruble, which also increased the volume of foreign currency sales to 5.7 billion rubles a day. As additional support measures, OFZs were placed in the amount of about 346 billion rubles. At the same time, buyers were offered a good bonus in the form of increased premiums.

The fall of the ruble against the dollar will continue

In the course of studying the possibilities of the national currency against the "American", experts came to the conclusion that, despite the measures taken, the RUB may reach a minimum, which was recorded in the spring during the first wave of the coronavirus. But it is possible to say more precisely how much the dollar will cost by the end of 2020 in Russia only after the election of the American president.

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According to preliminary forecasts, the ruble may not come out of a steep peak until it reaches 80-85 RUB per unit.“The Russian currency is quite capable of testing 85 rubles per dollar and 100 per euro,” says financial expert and investor Yan Marchinsky.

Moreover, the fall will be even more rapid, as the trend has gained strength. The market is already laying down the risks of toughening quarantine restrictions and the related reduction in the current account balance, falling prices for black gold and a decline in exports.

In addition, the Russian payment unit is under strong pressure due to the existing, as well as projected, sanctions due to the situation in Belarus and other geopolitical issues.

But the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov sees positive aspects in the weakening of the national currency. In particular, an increase in the USD exchange rate is beneficial for Russian companies that do not depend on imports. At the same time, a weak RUB may stimulate the transition of other companies to the Russian market.

What will happen next

Experts are confident that in the near future the ruble will not strengthen against the dollar. The trend can change direction only when certain conditions occur, including:

  • stable growth of oil prices;
  • reducing sanctions risks and uncertainties due to the coronavirus pandemic;
  • recovery of GDP and the economy as a whole.
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“In the short term, the dollar may return to 75-76 rubles, and the euro - to 88-89, but we are unlikely to see the June values,” says Ksenia Lapshina, an analyst at QBF.

However, experts do not exclude another scenario. It involves the imposition of personal, rather than sectoral, sanctions and the abandonment of repeated measures of restriction related to the coronavirus. In this case, we can see the dollar at 70-75 rubles.

And an increase in the cost of oil to $ 60 per barrel will open the prospect of buying USD for 65 rubles. But this will happen, according to experts, not earlier than the II-III quarter of next year.

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Outcomes

A powerful trend has emerged on the market for the strengthening of the dollar against the ruble, which will last until the end of the year. The trend can only be reversed by the stabilization of oil prices, the solution of problems associated with the second wave of coronavirus, and the recovery of economic indicators in the Russian Federation.

The Central Bank of Russia, together with the Ministry of Finance, is providing strong support to the ruble in the form of large-scale interventions. In the event of an unfavorable scenario, experts admit the strengthening of the USD to 80-85 rubles per unit.

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