Will the dollar continue to grow in 2020

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-01-12 17:37

We studied the opinions of experts about what will happen to the dollar in the near future and in 2020, and found out whether it will fall or rise. The results of analytical calculations are in front of you.

Influencing agents or many conditions

It is impossible to name all the factors that can affect the current dollar rate, both now and in the near future. Too many nuances can cause fluctuations, even the smallest ones.

Financial analysts mention only a few of them in their forecasts, however, this is enough to understand that only those who have the gift of foreseeing the future can predict whether the dollar rate will fall or rise.

The opinion of experts, even the most experienced and knowledgeable, in a particular country can act only for the near future, and it is much more difficult, or almost impossible, to understand whether the USD will fall or grow in the foreseeable future.

Expert opinions are usually based on the following factors:

• on oil prices, their falls and growth, periods of price stability, a fall or increase in demand for already made reserves;
• on the situation in the country - growth, stagnation of the economy, the level of unemployment, incomes of the population, the growth of industry, the demand for new real estate;
• on stock indices and gold and foreign exchange reserves, rates on bank loans, quarterly indicators of various kinds in the country as a whole, and in individual regions, if it is such a giant as Russia.

Information policy is of no small importance - a timely replicated statement of a prominent politician or financier can easily lead to destabilization of the dollar exchange rate, as well as timely published statistics.

Interesting! What will be the dollar exchange rate in January 2020

Based on these data, it is possible to predict with a high degree of probability whether the US dollar will fall or rise in the near future in a certain corner of the globe. However, these are far from all agents of influence on the quotes of the world currency, be it the exchange rate of the dollar, the Russian ruble or the euro.

The opinion of experts and the published forecast of financial analysts are based on real data. But none of them can predict what the latest news will be even in December 2019, let alone what will happen in 2020.

The most typical example of late is the planned meeting of the American and Chinese leaders in Chile, where internal instability flared up in a timely manner, frustrating existing plans.

Only people who had the most direct relation to it can predict such an outcome of a landmark event planned in the near future. According to experts in the field of world politics, well-developed political technologies can cause instability in a particular region of the globe.

Coming disaster

Forecasts about currency quotes are the subject of constant controversy in periodicals, reputable analytical agencies. There are different opinions about whether the Russian economy will grow or fall.

Some experts are confident that the latest news in 2020 will certainly be about the collapse of the ruble against the euro, and in the situation in the country there will be a recession, others declare the unpredictability and invaluable value of the Russian ruble and the fall of the euro.

The same predictions can be made about the US dollar exchange rate:

1. The latest news in the global financial community shows that the United States is doing everything to prevent the dollar from collapsing, to maintain its position in mutual settlements. However, the efforts made and radical measures (for example, loyalty programs that have strengthened the stability of their currency) have not diminished the likelihood that it will fall again, albeit in a not so anticipated near future.
2. It is very likely that in 2020 the US national debt will grow exponentially again and will amount to $ 30 trillion instead of $ 20 trillion. According to some experts, America is also facing a recession, although not in 2020, but at the end of 2021 for sure.
3. A stalemate will develop even if the United States comes out on top in the world in shale oil production. By dictating its terms on the world oil market, America will be able to influence the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar if it manages to reduce world prices. But this will not affect the decline in quotations against the euro, since the European Union depends on the price of oil per barrel to a minimum. So the latest news about this relationship is also conflicting.
4. Some analysts believe that a decrease in the US national debt and an improvement in the dollar exchange rate are predictable, while others are firmly convinced that the euro can reduce these favorable forecasts.

There is strong confidence in the USD strengthening in the near future, as the German economy shows negative dynamics. In France, there are strong popular unrest (also unknown, spontaneous or artificially provoked), and Italy does not improve the situation, demonstrating a steady increase in public debt.

Russia - what is the likelihood of falling and rising

The forecasts here are completely ambiguous. There is unanimity only on the dollar growth in early 2020. The head of the Institute for Strategic Analysis, I. Nikolaev, is firmly convinced that at the beginning of winter there will be an upward trend due to the need to settle business in Russia on borrowed dollar loans. However, by the end of the year, its cost will be 67 rubles per dollar.

But the final predictions of whether it will fall or rise remain unclear:

1. Vitaly Kalugin, an independent analyst in the field of real estate and finance, predicts a drop in the value of the American currency to 40 rubles by the end of 2020.
2. There is another opinion, expressed by the adviser on macroeconomics to the general director of Otkritie Broker, associate professor of the Faculty of Finance and Banking of the RANEPA under the President of the Russian Federation, Sergei Khestanov. He believes that the ruble will fall and the dollar will rise, and this is to blame for the oil quotes and the country's external debt.
3. The latest news from the Central Bank says that the market will regulate the ruble-dollar ratio. Possible fluctuations caused by oil prices or the forced purchase of USD in the domestic market should not force the state to spend gold and foreign exchange reserves to maintain the national currency.

Interesting! Euro exchange rate for January 2020

The opinions of experts on the problems of changing the quotation of the US dollar are extremely ambiguous, despite the fact that interest in its rate does not wane for a minute. Too many factors need to be considered in order to solve the puzzle of whether the USD will fall or rise in the near future. Financial analysts suggest that in 2020 there are several possible scenarios for the development of the scenario, but none of them can be said to be the most likely and will certainly take place.

Summarizing

1. Quotes can rise or fall, depending on many factors.
2. The development of events depends on international news and the domestic economic situation.
3. You should not react to every hesitation, otherwise it can lead to losses.