What will be the euro exchange rate in May 2021

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-01-18 00:05

The situation in the global economy is rather unpredictable. For Russians, the question of which currency is better to keep their savings is relevant, so as not to face the depreciation of the ruble. Let's try to understand what the euro exchange rate will be in May 2021, and analyze the opinions of experts on this matter.

What is the opinion of the experts

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The Information and Analytical Center for Economic Forecasting provides data, according to which the euro quotes in May 2021 will be at least 93, 85, maximum - 94, 89 rubles. Thus, they predict an increase in the exchange rate for the month equal to 1.33%, compared to April, and an overall increase of 1.1%. But in order to make an accurate and true forecast, it is better to study the opinions of other experts, including representatives of large Russian banks.

Henning Gloystein, an analyst at Eurasia Group, draws the attention of interested parties to the fact that the level of the euro is dependent on fuel prices. Now countries everywhere start talking about the need for quarantine due to the increase in the percentage of patients with coronavirus.

If restrictive measures are introduced, most people will have to give up visiting crowded places and traveling, which will hit fuel demand as expected. If a similar situation is observed in the late spring of 2021, as it was in the previous year, then it is unlikely that the euro will be able to rise in value.

Veles Capital analyst Yuri Kravchenko sees the flight of investors from emerging markets as a possible scenario. The reason for this, according to the expert, may be the lack of stimulus measures for the American economy. This will create unfavorable conditions for the dollar.

Accordingly, the euro will be viewed by investors as a more attractive asset. It is quite possible that large exchange players, entrepreneurs and ordinary citizens will trust the European currency more, which will increase the demand for it, therefore, the quotes will become more attractive.

Investment Director of Loko-Invest Investment Company Dmitry Polevoy claims that the authorities will in every possible way avoid too harsh restrictive measures, even if the situation with coronavirus drags on until May 2021. According to him, this can cause irreparable damage to the economies of states, and therefore all resources of budgetary and monetary policy will be used.

The approximate euro exchange rate, in the opinion of key players, for convenience is indicated below in the form of a table:

Estimated forecast for May 2021	At the beginning of the month	At the end of the month
VTB	112, 51	106, 78
Sberbank	112, 56	106, 84
UniCredit	112, 66	106, 96
Russian standard	112, 51	106, 78
Alfa Bank	112, 74	107, 05
Gazprombank	110, 81	104, 74
Information and Analytical Center for Economic Forecasting	93, 85	94, 89

Potential risks of increased panic in the market will create an incentive for leaders, including European states, to introduce supportive measures. Accordingly, it can be expected that the euro will rise at least slightly. But it is also quite possible that it will be above 100 rubles, because despite all sorts of stimulating measures, Russian stock indices and the national currency will remain under pressure.

Forecasts from analysts of Russian banks VTB, Russian Standard, Sberbank

Key Russian banks have already outlined their vision of what will happen to the euro in May 2021. Financial analysts from VTB Bank are of the opinion that according to the results of the first quarter of 2021, there will be an increase in euro quotations, after which they will begin to decline in the spring.

In particular, in May 2021, experts see a possible scenario in which the euro rate will be 112.51 rubles at the beginning of the month (up to the 10th day), and 106.78 rubles at the end of the month. Thus, the decrease in percentage terms will amount to 5.74%.

Representatives of Russian Standard Bank are also confident that euro quotes will rise in winter and begin to fall in spring. As a result, in May, according to economists and analysts of Russian Standard, the euro rate will be 114.24 rubles. After about the 20th and until the end of the month, analysts are expecting quotes at 108.85 rubles. Decrease in percentage terms will be -5, 39%.

Experts of the largest bank of Russia also provide their forecast for euro quotes in May 2021. … According to the vision of Sberbank analysts, in the first ten days of May, quotations will have to be expected at the level of 112.56 rubles, and after the 20th and until the end of the month - the rate, which will be 106.84 rubles.

Forecast from UniCredit specialists

Making a forecast, the specialists of this bank based on the predicted factors. But, as you know, changes in the political and economic spheres can also play a role. The situation with the coronavirus epidemic is capable of changing currency quotes in one direction or another.

Analysts at UniCredit Bank cite quotes at the beginning of May 2021, which are 112, 66. As for the end of the month, they call a figure of 106, 96 rubles.

Forecast from Alfa-Bank

In accordance with the assumptions of the bank's analysts, in May 2021, the euro quotes are expected to decline against the ruble. Financial experts predict the rate, which in the first days of the month will amount to 112.74 rubles, as well as a mark of 107.05 rubles. in the end of May.

Forecasts made by large banks often hit the target and turn out to be accurate. A noteworthy feature: banks always make forecasts based on the official rate, because it is used in settlements with the Central Bank.

Opinion of Gazprombank financiers

The representatives of the financial institution have compiled the estimated dynamics of the price of the European currency in rubles per 1 EUR. Whether the exchange rate will fall or rise in May - in accordance with their assumptions, the forecast is practically no different from the previous ones, as experts see a possible decline in quotations in May.

At the same time, they name slightly different numbers than their opponents. For example, at the beginning of May, up to the 10th, they indicate quotes equal to 110, 81 rubles. As for the third decade of the month, financiers consider the real rate of 104, 74 rubles.

Outcomes

1. It is difficult to predict the accuracy of the currency quotes in May 2021, but with regard to the euro, most experts agree that the rate will exceed 110 rubles.
2. The pessimistic scenario, according to which the euro may decrease in price compared to the current indicators, is given in rare cases.
3. Analysts of the largest Russian banks believe that in the first quarter of 2021 it will be possible to observe an increase in quotations, but starting from spring there will be a decline in the exchange rate.