What will be the euro exchange rate in May 2020 in Russia

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 14:00

At the beginning of 2020, the media in Russia intensively cited the opinions of experts on the expected exchange rate of the euro against the ruble. Against the backdrop of unexpectedly revealed circumstances, the latest news and forecasts of what it will be in May are quite relevant.

Preliminary forecasts: value for the common citizen

The citizens of Russia, taught by the bitter experience of 1998 and 2008, are closely following not only the current exchange rate of the euro, but also the forecasts from analysts of banks and agencies, so-called independent experts.

Often, bloggers who do not even have the appropriate education are hiding under this loud term.

The answer to the question, what level of the euro's value will be during 2020, at the end of 2019 could not foresee unexpected factors:

• coronavirus spreading around the planet;
• a drop in demand for petroleum products due to a pandemic, a high level of morbidity and a decrease in population migration;
• Russia's refusal to sign another agreement to reduce oil production.

In 2019, forecasts for the euro exchange rate were based on other circumstances - the then state of the world economy (now the coronavirus had a negative impact on the situation of countries in the first and second risk groups), the unstable political situation, the UK's exit from the EU, inflation.

What determines the reliability of forecasts

Forecasts from sources opposition to the government are invariably depressive in nature, they prophesy about the impending devaluation of the ruble and the economic crisis in Russia. The population of the country is buying up dollars and euros, playing into the hands of traders (especially in extreme circumstances).

Experts in the banking sector note that it is rumors and panic that contribute to the fall of the ruble almost more than actual calculations.

The ruble today, in comparison with many currencies of other countries, is one of the most reliable national currency units. But it depends on the unforeseen circumstances of the exchange policy, the state of the economy, including in other countries.

The country's gold and foreign exchange reserves, the absence of external debt and the readiness of the Russian government for a recession speak in its favor. Various circumstances can play against: from pre-calculated and planned to unforeseen, as in the case of the coronavirus.

How much one should trust optimistic or depressive statements can be judged by comparing last year's and current forecasts. Bad expectations come true with a probability of 50%, good expectations did not take into account unexpected influencing factors. Hence the errors in determining the rates of the two influential currencies, the assertion that significant fluctuations are not expected in February-March.

Figures and sources of forecasts

The daily updated Internet source "Monetary Resource", which positions itself as an expert center, publishes data for the day, week and every month until the end of 2020. In May of this year, the growth of the euro is indicated to the range of 101, 64-105, 61.

The enviable confidence in what the European currency rate will be in May 2020, down to the second digit after the decimal point, raises some doubts, supported by the statements posted at the bottom of the page. They say that the information is for informational purposes only, and the resource does not bear any responsibility for its use by site visitors.

More reliable sources make cautious statements given the unpredictability of the economic situation. The value of the euro in relation to the ruble depends on many circumstances:

1. The baseline scenario is based on further stabilization of the Russian economy, growth in oil prices, and a slowdown in GDP growth in Europe. There are certain prerequisites for this: the spread of the coronavirus, the fall of the tourism industry, the exit of the UK from the EU (albeit delayed).
2. Pessimistic - for example, from the candidate of economic sciences M. Krivelevich, is invariably based on the coming growth of inflation. True, there is a reservation that in late May and early summer the ruble will stabilize slightly, but in the future there will be only devaluation, inflation and financial collapse.
3. Optimistic options for what the euro exchange rate will be in May are based not only on unfounded confidence that the coronavirus will subside, oil will rise in price, and there will be no military conflicts or revolutions in the world. They are based on a detailed analysis of the advantages that the Russian economy has, in contrast to the European and American ones. Among them: lack of external debt, foreign exchange reserves, calculated readiness to withstand the recession.

Analysts of the "Russian Standard" predicted the growth of the euro in early spring, they are confident that in May there will be a steady downward trend until the end of this year. Similar scenarios were voiced by the analysts of Rosselkhozbank and Gazprombank. The consensus forecast for the combination of spring growth and December decline is at the level of 78-80 rubles

Summarize

1. The forecast for the year and for a certain month in the financial sector is characterized by the unpredictability of many factors.
2. It is difficult for analysts to predict military and political conflicts.
3. Anything can affect the situation - from rumors to a pandemic of a new virus.
4. In Russia, there are prerequisites for leveling the exchange rate.
5. Experts express conflicting opinions.