What awaits Russia in the near future in 2022

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 14:00

The Internet gives only negative forecasts on the issue of what awaits Russia in the near future in 2022, dated from previous years, or a detailed retelling of prophecies from the CMASF - the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis of Short-Term Forecasting. The prospects, in their opinion, are not very good, and reasonable voices even from foreign forecasting agencies, in which completely different arguments are presented, are stubbornly ignored.

What will happen: opposing opinions

Izvestia published a forecast from the Norwegian consulting company Rystad Energy, which appeared in mid-August. It talks about the prospects opening up for the Russian Federation, associated with the recent decision by OPEC to gradually increase the level of production.

According to analysts from the Norwegian company, this decision is an excellent answer to the question of what awaits Russia in the near future, in 2022. Due to the resumption of the average daily level of oil and gas production, it will be able to recover in the near future from the consequences of the pandemic and the decline in indicators associated with its specifics.

The mid-term perspective, according to the authors of the forecast, is the appearance of new projects for Rosneft and Gazpromneft. From the published financial statements of the first of the companies mentioned, it can be seen that it has already slightly increased the pace of its work. In 2023, the rates of oil and gas production will reach their peak values.

Meanwhile, Russian analysts are persistently talking about a new world crisis, which will inevitably affect the country's economy in 2-3 years. All the assumptions made are reminiscent of panic expectations for the second quarter of 2020. Then the excitement on the world stock exchange left no room for imagination for any of those who constantly talk about the day of the Russian economy, its "black swans", the fall of the Kremlin and other negative expectations, which are already several decades old.

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Situation in the economy

D. Friedman of Stratford expects that the fall in oil prices will trigger the collapse of Russia, which will disintegrate into small territorial communities. Analysts noted that the drop in prices for "black gold" did not have a significant impact on either the dollar rate or other processes in the economy. Even CMASF, before predicting a total global crisis, is forced to admit that the basic scenario for the recovery of the Russian economy is inevitable.

Sociologist S. Belanovsky, when asked what awaits Russia in the near future in 2022, does not open anything new, suggesting that the population prepare for a new round of inflation. In addition to this, he predicts rallies and mass protests that the authorities will be able to stop.

Forecasts from leading economists predict not only economic growth in the second quarter of 2021 (already radically different from the indicators of the first), but also an increase in wages, a recovery in the labor market and a decrease in unemployment, despite administrative restrictions caused by the third wave of the pandemic.

As for the American economist, he still focuses on the ruble's dependence on oil prices. Market analysts, meanwhile, noted that the latest drop in quotations had practically no effect on the national currency.

Forecast from the Central Bank

The country's main bank has once again raised its key rate, which it had to repeatedly lower since the beginning of the pandemic. This long-awaited step was met with relief by both the country's financial system and people who place money on deposits for profit. On a global scale, this does not give an answer to the question of what awaits Russia in the near future in 2022, but it will help keep the inflation rate at bay, although prices will rise by inertia until the end of the year. However, at the beginning of 2022, inflation is expected to decrease to the usual 4%.

Everything is bad

The tendency to look to the future with pessimism is clearly visible in the forecast from CMASF. The basic scenario from the authors provides for a new industrialization, which will inevitably lead to an increase in the cost of raw materials. However, this will also lead, according to the analysts of the center, to an increase in the role of private business, which they regard as a negative factor, even despite the increase in wages of the population and growth in consumption.

If the second option, called the social turnaround, is chosen, the authors of the forecast assume an imminent shift in the balance of trade operations in favor of imports and a weak modernization of production.

Even stabilization, as the third possible scenario, according to analysts, will only provoke an increase in import substitution, and low demand for raw materials will lead Russia to an inevitable debt trap.

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Grounds for optimism

They exist, and to gain a confident look into the future, it is enough to recall some eloquent facts. They will be the most eloquent answer to the question of what awaits Russia in the near future in 2022:

• The Russian Federation, unexpectedly for many, took the second place in the world in terms of shipbuilding volumes.
• The sanctions imposed on the country led to an increase in import substitution, which saved the economy from the ravages of the pandemic (it would be quite different if the connections built by the globalists remained the same).
• Ruble at 100 and euro at 120 rubles. still remain the dreams of the prophets of the death of Russia. Sane experts say that the Russian currency is undervalued by at least 15%.
• The external debt of the Russian Federation is 30% of GDP, and this is in the presence of a national welfare fund. In America it is 100%, and in the UK it is 300.
• Having before our eyes the example of Iran and Venezuela, disconnected from the dollar settlement system, the Russian Federation is taking preventive measures - it refuses the dollar as part of the reserve fund, replacing it with euros, yuan and gold.
• Over time, our own payment system will make it possible not to depend on foreign ones, and this is another step towards gaining economic independence.

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In the Soviet Union, the economy practically did not depend on imports, and there is nothing wrong with import substitution, no matter how negatively some experts perceive this term. V. Emelyanov, an analyst at Freedom Finance, believes that Russia is in for an inertial scenario, stable, but with a slight increase.

Outcomes

Experts' opinions are controversial and based on variable assumptions:

1. The Russian economy will grow steadily, but with a slight increase.
2. New industrialization will lead to higher prices for raw materials.
3. The social scenario will improve the situation of the unprotected segments of the population.
4. The facts give reason to assume an optimistic scenario for the Russian Federation.