What awaits Russia in the near future: expert opinions

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 14:00

2020 was marked by many complex events that affected almost all areas, including the economy and politics of states. Consider what awaits Russia in the near future, the opinions of experts on this score.

Economic problems - what experts say

Rector of the Russian School of Economics (NES) Ruben Enikolopov believes that the government is in vain hoping for the possibility of a quick economic recovery. According to him, the Ministry of Economic Development did not even invest the second wave of COVID-19 in the recovery program and did not provide objective reasons for an optimistic forecast, which was announced by the department for 2021-2022.

The basic version of the forecast, which was published by the ministry, prescribed GDP growth within 3.3% in 2021. In 2022-23. the department expects growth equal to 3, 4 and 3%, respectively. The expert emphasizes that such indicators are impossible without applying structural changes in the economy and approving specific measures that could guarantee a long-term increase in GDP growth rates.

The forecast of the Russian economy, officially announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, has already been criticized by the Accounts Chamber, which called it too optimistic. A more realistic option, she considered the decline in GDP in 2020.

Events taking place around the world, including the coronavirus pandemic, as expected, contributed to the drop in the incomes of Russians. The monetary profit of our compatriots, according to Rosstat data, already in the second quarter of 2020 decreased by 8.4% per annum. This is a kind of anti-record for the 21st century.

Tatyana Maleva, director of the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, RANEPA, says that there is no need to talk about any economic growth as long as the incomes of the population continue to fall. According to her, this situation will be protracted, and therefore the expected consequence will be stagnation in the Russian economy.

When you have to talk about the need to survive in the face of falling cash incomes, expenses are logically reduced to a minimum, and people save. This situation entails limiting consumer demand.

According to Maleva, the bulk of the financial assistance from the state during the pandemic went to families with children, while citizens under 30 who have not yet had a child received minimal support. It is this category of the population that will be at risk in the near future, since it will be difficult for its representatives to find work and decent earnings.

Trying to predict what will happen to the ruble, experts usually voice neutral or negative opinions. Igor Nikolaev, Doctor of Economics, says that in the near future, the national currency may weaken, because of which the adverse consequences will be felt, first of all, by businessmen. Revenue will decline, and for this reason, entrepreneurs will have to cut their staff. Such a large-scale layoff will be accompanied by a rise in prices.

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Political situation

Robin Niblett, director of the British Royal Institute of International Relations, believes that not only in Russia, but also in other developed countries, there will be a strengthening of nationalism. The image of the West, according to the expert, will gradually collapse. This will be facilitated by measures taken with a delay in the territory of European states and the United States. In the East, a representative of the British Institute predicts strengthening. He especially believes in China, South Korea and Singapore.

Professor Valery Solovey says that the Russian authorities have to make political decisions in accordance with oil prices and the sanctions applied against our country. The expert believes that it is still impossible to say for sure what the consequences could be for the Russian Federation if Biden wins.

The professor is not 100% sure that the representative of the Democrats will want to apply new tough measures that will make Russia feel completely infringed upon its rights, as this could create a danger. In such conditions, Russia can ask for help from China and, according to the expert, the American side understands this well.

But since this state of affairs is contrary to the interests of the United States, any innovations will be introduced with caution and after long discussions. At the same time, the expert considers attempts to introduce a partial oil embargo under Biden as quite possible.

One of the most threatening prospects, according to the expert, is disconnection from SWIFT, with which domestic financial institutions work. The implementation of this measure could lead to the collapse of the Russian banking system.

V. Solovey assumes that the current crisis situation will continue until the first quarter of 2022. After the end of this period, it will be possible to wait for the first attempts to stabilize the situation. This will manifest itself in the growth of oil prices and the flow of money.

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, predicts that Russia's corporate debt could rise to $ 19 trillion. According to her, this could be facilitated by an economic downturn against the backdrop of a pandemic, up to the risk of default.

When will the pandemic end and what will happen after the coronavirus

Among the main issues of concern to Russians is the end date of the pandemic and whether there will be new waves after that. Anatoly Alshtein, Professor of the Research Center of Epidemiology and Microbiology named after N. F.

Alexander Gorelov, deputy director for research at the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, expects the so-called coronavirus plateau to be reached when the growth rate of new cases is stable over 8 days. At the same time, it is important that the virus spread index does not exceed one. So far, he does not see any prerequisites for achieving these marks.

American experts representing the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy on COVID-19 believe that the current wave of 2020 will be followed by a series of smaller waves that will occur over the next 1-2 years. After that, according to them, there will be cases of infection, but without a clear picture of the waves.

Experts believe that even when the pandemic subsides completely, it is unlikely that it will completely disappear. They are inclined to believe that the coronavirus will somehow continue to circulate in the human community and will appear depending on the seasonal factor.

Vladimir Gelman, a professor at the European University at St. Petersburg, is more restrained about the upcoming changes after the pandemic. He believes that the world will not change beyond recognition. Speaking about what awaits Russia in the near future, the expert is of the opinion that it will suffer economically more than other developed countries.

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The level of dissatisfaction with the quality of life and the actions of the state in 2020, according to the professor, will continue to grow after the end of the coronavirus epidemic. Business will also have a difficult time, it will recover for a long time and slowly, since there are no supporting measures in Russia that can quickly help it get back on its feet.

Moreover, in our country, according to Gelman, there are many measures for regulation and control. All these features, in accordance with the expert's forecast, will contribute to the fact that the crisis in post-pandemic Russia will not be too long.

Outcomes

1. According to most experts, in the near future and after the end of the pandemic, Russia will have to face a crisis in the economic and financial sectors.
2. Unemployment will continue to grow for at least the next six months. Business will also experience significant difficulties, including after the abolition of quarantine measures.
3. In political terms, our country runs the risk of facing new restrictive measures, the initiative in the introduction of which will belong to the United States.