Car price forecast for 2022 in Russia

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 14:00

Car prices rise regularly. The coronavirus crisis is not the only reason. The forecast for car prices in 2022 in Russia, according to the latest news, says that their cost will go up.

Key factors

Recent news shows that the cost of vehicles may change. Many factors can influence the process of price increases for cars in Russia in 2022.

It is necessary to highlight the most significant for making a forecast:

• Tightening environmental requirements. The cost of new products will be subject to additional costs. The manufacturer will have to carry out important costly inspections, introduce improved technologies in the production of cars. All this is necessary in order for the buyer to receive a product that meets all consumption standards.
• Economic factors: instability of the exchange rate, an increase in the VAT rate by 20%, the introduction of new duties on foreign cars, etc.
• The next factor depends on the characteristics of the vehicle: year of manufacture, mileage, transmission, dimensions, interior appearance and its configuration.
• From the point of view of legal purity, the price of a car will decrease if it had several owners, a duplicate was made due to the loss of the original Title, a plate with a flawed number plate. For these and similar reasons, the liquidity of the car is reduced.
• Kudos to brands. The price for two cars of the same characteristics may differ significantly. Some brands invest heavily in advertising to promote their product on the market. All these costs are reflected in the cost of the goods.

According to the latest economic news, car loans with a lower interest rate are pushing people to buy a car. This will also affect the forecasts for an increase in car prices in 2022 in Russia. When there is a stable demand, it is unprofitable for producers to reduce prices for their products. And for many people now a loan seems to be the only chance to buy a vehicle.

What changes await the Russian car market in the near future?

Now the question is being actively discussed, will there be an increase in prices for vehicles of various classes? Events will develop according to 2 scenarios:

• Deferred demand. People will decide to buy a car now, because they could not buy it during the pandemic.
• Prices in 2022 will grow steadily due to strong demand. The production of cars will not stop, which means that the aftermarket will also grow due to the desire of people to buy a new vehicle by selling an old car.

The need for transport may fall if the economic situation in the country worsens. Decrease in sales, according to experts, is possible within 10%. And prices, on the contrary, will rise due to negative economic factors.

It will be quite difficult to get a decent car with the lowest mileage on the secondary market. As the price of the latest models rises, the demand for used cars will decrease and the price for them will increase.

We have to note the lack of supply in the secondary market, which the car market met with last fall. There was a severe shortage of cars of both budget and premium class. Then deferred demand came out.

During the crisis, people did not have the opportunity to spend money on vacations abroad and invested them in purchasing a vehicle after the crisis. Also, the shortage is more due to the fact that many enterprises had to suspend factories for a long time during the coronavirus pandemic. Because of this, sales have dropped significantly.

There is still a shortage of cars in the car market, but this is no longer such a big problem. At the moment, many enterprises are working around the clock to compensate for losses. Therefore, the shortage of proposals will be leveled in the near future.

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It is not worth anticipating a decline in value until the moment of regulation. The shortage led to a 20% increase in car prices.

Is the market recovery possible in 2022?

Experts give the most optimistic forecast for the car market only at the beginning of March 2022. They believe that stopping prices is possible only if the economic situation in the country is optimized and the ruble is strengthened on the stock exchange.

There is an assumption that the rise in vehicle prices cannot be avoided. The producers will decide to reimburse the costs they incurred during the pandemic. The price tag will reflect the constant rise in prices for accessories, parts and other components.

In the secondary market, the pricing forecast for 2022 is also not very pleasant. The vast majority of people will be forced to consider buying a car from the aftermarket due to the spike in prices for new cars.

As demand increases, dealers will start to inflate prices in the price list. More dealers will appear. Of course, there will be no sudden leap, everything will happen gradually.

What should Russian motorists wait for?

It is not yet possible to answer when to expect a decrease in vehicle prices. According to experts, the rise in prices at the end of 2021 will not exceed 15%. The deficit will also have to be eliminated by this time.

There will be no prerequisites for a collapse in prices. It is assumed that in 2022 the picture will be the same as it was before the crisis. A sudden increase in prices is also not expected. It is likely that sellers will first keep the price tags at the 2021 level, then there will be a gradual increase.

Experts report that the best time to buy a vehicle will be the spring of 2022. Hence the question arises whether to expect a decline in car prices next year, to which most experts give a negative answer. Therefore, it is not recommended to put off buying a car on the back burner.

There are 2 price spikes ahead

Denis Petrunin, director of the AutoSpecCentre Group of Companies, believes that the need for cars will decrease, since the purchasing power of the population has decreased. Only those with savings will not wait and will be able to purchase a car without delay.

There will be no incentive to buy a car and the strengthening of the ruble. This will not give any positive potential.

Presumably, the rise in prices will take place in 2 stages. At first, there will be an increase of 3-4%. This rise in price occurs gradually, the exchange rate does not affect it. The price tag for modern models is growing due to technical progress, because now a lot of money is being invested in improving quality, expanding functions and capabilities.

Then, due to a decrease in demand, the price of cars will increase by another 7-8%. The manufacturer will seek to recoup losses incurred by declining sales. According to experts, the increase in vehicle prices will be gradual, but the final growth will reach 10-12%. The main reason is the instability of the national currency. The cost of a car depends significantly on the prices for spare parts brought from abroad (they are tied to the exchange rate).

Outcomes

1. A significant rise in price will affect the cars of the middle and budget class. When assembling them, a lot of parts are involved, imported from abroad. Moreover, such cars are considered to be an investment with a low profitability.
2. The price rise will affect premium cars only slightly - by about 10%.
3. The situation in the car market will be settled only at the end of spring 2022. It is highly likely that this will be the only period of decline in prices, as people will prefer to spend money on vacations and travel abroad.