When will coronavirus 2020 end in Russia and in the world today?

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-01-12 17:37

There are several opinions today about when the coronavirus epidemic will end in 2020 in Russia and around the world. Let's consider them in more detail.

Situation for today

The situation that is developing today with the coronavirus pandemic has already covered the entire globe. And in most countries it is only getting worse. The number of cases is growing in waves. Unfortunately, the number of victims is also growing.

The following states are a kind of negative leaders in this anti-rating:

• Italy;
• Spain;
• England;
• Germany;
• France;
• Iran;
• South Korea;
• China;
• Japan;
• Malaysia;
• USA.

Here the number of people infected is several thousand. The only thing that needs to be noted is that China and South Korea have almost completely defeated the epidemic in their regions. In any case, this is the situation today.

But this does not yet say when the 2020 coronavirus will end in Russia and in the world, because the situation does not yet show positive dynamics in all parts of the globe. Rather, on the contrary, another jump and an increase in the number of cases are expected in the near future and, unfortunately, an increase in the number of victims of an insidious disease cannot be ruled out.

Reasons why fighting coronavirus is difficult

The Covid19 epidemic came as a surprise to all countries, especially Italy, where mortality rates are many times higher than the average for other regions of the world.

Virologists have given several explanations for why the coronavirus is spreading so rapidly, being so dangerous for the population:

1. He is highly contagious. Moreover, the transmission method is very simple - airborne, which negatively affects the speed and intensity of propagation. This is especially true for densely populated regions.
2. The long incubation period, which is asymptomatic, does not allow the person to be isolated immediately. During the time that the virus develops in his body, he manages to contact with many people, thereby infecting a large number of citizens.
3. Coronavirus mutates quickly. It adapts to the changing conditions of the external environment, depending on the region in which it is distributed.
4. The coronavirus is cold resistant. He is not afraid of frosty weather, retaining his vitality almost completely even in a frozen state.
5. Chlorine solutions, according to the latest data, do not give a disinfection effect. Coronavirus can only be destroyed by wiping surfaces with alcohol-containing liquids.

Forecast data for April

Naturally, it is impossible to say unequivocally how the situation with coronavirus in the world will develop at the moment. Therefore, there are several predictions:

1. According to some reports, the number of cases in China will increase in April. Intensive foci of spread will be limited to Iran, Japan, South Korea and Italy. Gradually, by May or June, the number of cases will begin to decline rapidly, and the coronavirus will stop its negative impact on this. Not only the epidemiological situation will begin to stabilize, but also the economic condition of each country affected by the pandemic will return to its usual course.
2. According to the pessimistic forecast, one should not wait for the extinction of the epidemic in April. Humanity, most likely, will wait for the increase in the number of cases at a tremendous pace. The viral infection will spread like the "Spanish flu" that raged in the world in 1918-1920. The predicted number of deaths according to this forecast is several tens of millions of people.
3. But there is one more scenario that, from the point of view of virologists, will look the most likely. The coronavirus will be a type of H1N1 flu, which is called "swine". That is, we should expect periodic repetitions of this situation in subsequent seasons or years.
4. Harvard epidemiologist Mar Lipsich estimates that at least 20% of the world's population will get sick. But there are those who predict that the pandemic will affect up to 60% of the world's people. And all these are forecasts for 2020 only.

Therefore, there is no need to expect that the coronavirus in 2020 in Russia and the world will end quickly, and the situation today confirms this statement. There is no definitive answer to the question of when the virus will weaken.

If we consider positive forecasts, then they are adhered to due to the fact that the virus in question is unstable to high temperatures. So, according to numerous observations, it has been proven that as soon as the ambient temperature reaches more than + 10 ° C, the virus loses its activity in terms of spread by about 20%.

As soon as the ambient air temperature reaches +30 ° С, its propagation will almost completely stop. It is known that when heated to +60 ° C, it becomes unviable. That is why, it is assumed that by June he will almost completely outlive himself.

Forecasts for Russia

The first case of the virus in Russia was in the Tyumen region. A Chinese woman who studied at a Russian institute brought the coronavirus into the country. She came to the Russian Federation in winter after visiting her homeland.

Several dozen regions have already registered cases of human infection. Therefore, many are very concerned about the question of when the coronavirus will end in 2020 in Russia and in the world, because today the situation has stopped only in China.

Russia ranks 47th in the ranking of countries in the world in terms of the number of cases. The following regions of the country are most susceptible to the disease:

1. Large metropolitan areas such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.
2. Sochi, Kazan, Yekaterinburg, Samara, Irkutsk, Ulyanovsk and the corresponding regions.

According to Russian virologists, China coped with the epidemic thanks to timely and very tough measures to prevent the spread, localize patients and suppress the transmission of infection.

It is expected that in April, the number of infected in Russia will decrease, leaving behind only a few cases. This opinion is based on the fact that, in the overwhelming majority of cases, the infection is mild, and only in a small number of patients it causes complications.

Based on the totality of facts, the overwhelming majority of Russia's risks are assessed as low. Therefore, it is worth expecting that when warming comes, the coronavirus will most likely end in 2020 in Russia and in the world, and today the situation remains tense.

Summarize

Today the situation is developing as follows:

1. In a number of European countries, the number of cases continues to grow rapidly.
2. The government of the country has taken measures to prevent the flow of infected people into Russia. For this, air traffic with many countries has been suspended.
3. Tightening of measures is expected in case of unfavorable development of the situation.