When will the coronavirus end in the world and expert predictions

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 14:00

Everyone is interested in when the coronavirus will end in the world, because people are tired of constant anxiety, uncertainty and permanent preventive measures. Experts' opinions on the end of the pandemic vary.

How are things in Russia?

The epidemiological situation in the country is showing positive dynamics - fewer and fewer people are infected with the coronavirus. This year, the Unified State Exam is no longer canceled, the start of the population census is scheduled, and the previously established strict restrictions on the conduct of events have been canceled.

If it was possible to know for certain in what year the coronavirus pandemic in Russia will end, people would breathe a sigh of relief. However, today there is no definite answer to this question.

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S. Netesov, professor, one of the most famous virologists not only in the country, but also in the world, explained in sufficient detail why the end of the pandemic is not yet expected soon:

• the incidence rate has not decreased in all countries;
• asymptomatic infection in some cases complicates the fight against the spread of the virus;
• spring-summer time comes, when the aerosol virus is inactivated by ultraviolet light, but in cold seasons the pathogen will begin to actively spread again;
• the rate of vaccination is not enough for 70% of the population to develop immunity even by autumn in Russia.

In the first months, about 3 million people were vaccinated, and with the increasing pace of vaccine production, their number will grow by 2 million per month. Only those who have had a severe or moderate coronavirus develop a sustained immune response naturally.

It is even more difficult to answer the question of when the coronavirus will end in the world, because in some countries with high incidence rates, vaccination has not yet started or it is being carried out with ineffective means. In Ukraine, in some areas, the red level of danger. The authorities purchased Indian and Chinese vaccines, which are not effective enough. In such conditions, it is difficult to predict the end of the pandemic.

What other experts are saying

The main forecasts of experts:

• Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Health, O. Gridnev, is sure that by the middle of this year a sharp decline in the incidence will begin, so it will be possible to speak of a positive trend;
• D. Protsenko, chief physician of Kommunarka, suggests another wave of coronavirus in winter;
• A. Gintsburg, head of the N. I. Gamaleya, where the world's first vaccine against Covid-19 was created, I am convinced that with proper activity by the end of this year, it will be possible to form herd immunity in Russia through vaccination;
• A. Chepurnov, a leading specialist of the KEM Institute, is convinced that the turning point for the improvement of the epidemiological situation will come in the summer of 2021.

Experts' forecasts are much more cautious and restrained when it comes to ending the pandemic on a global scale. Analogies are drawn with the Spanish flu, whose virus was inactivated on its own, concerns are also expressed about the formation of a super-resistant strain against which vaccines will be powerless.

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The end of the pandemic in the world

It is impossible to find confident or reliable forecasts of experts regarding the situation in the world as a whole.

For example, V. Zverev, Head of the Research Institute of Vaccines and Serums, believes that the collective immunity of the Northern Hemisphere will be formed by the end of 2021, but he is not sure that there will be no active outbreaks even in Russia over the next 24-30 months.

The impossibility of constructing mathematical models is explained by the fact that the virus is constantly mutating. The exact answer can be given by knowing the three components of the formula: the time for the development of mass immunity, the end of total vaccination and the dynamics of further modifications of Covid-19. And these data, alas, are not known for certain.

Outcomes

So far there is no exact answer to the question about the timing of the end of the global pandemic:

1. The virus mutates permanently and this makes it impossible to build a mathematical model.
2. Historical analogies cannot be relied upon as this is a new type of pathogen.
3. There is not enough knowledge about the rate of formation of immunity and its stability.
4. In different countries, vaccination is carried out unevenly, with low-quality drugs or insufficiently intensively.