What will be the dollar exchange rate in October 2021 and expert opinion

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 14:00

The relative stability of the ruble against other currencies, primarily against the dollar, ensures the equilibrium of the economic situation within the country. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation acts as a regulator of the ruble's stability. The analytical departments of the leading banks of the Russian Federation process a huge amount of information in order to predict exchange rates for the foreseeable future. We will find out what the dollar exchange rate will be in October 2021 according to experts.

The main reasons for exchange rate fluctuations

The change in the dollar exchange rate is due to many factors: geopolitical, economic. In addition to analytically predictable factors, force majeure may affect the stability of the ruble against the dollar. For example, the coronavirus epidemic has forced the US government to stimulate additional emissions of the dollar, the main reserve currency, in significant amounts. In 2020 alone, the amount of injections amounted to $ 9 trillion and, as experts say, the virtual printing press has not stopped yet. A significant injection of money supply affects the dollar exchange rate. According to analysts' forecasts, during 2021, the dollar against the euro and the pound will fall in price by 10%.

Interesting! When is the Day of Family, Love and Fidelity in 2022

The main factors affecting the dollar exchange rate:

• Trust in the national currency, the ruble. An unstable exchange rate, sharp upward jumps form a negative attitude among people towards the domestic currency. There is an increased demand for the dollar, therefore, its rate is growing. In such conditions, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in order to satisfy the demand, enters the market with additional intervention of the dollar. If, on the contrary, supply exceeds demand, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation buys up foreign currency. The Central Bank establishes the so-called corridor, within which the change in the value of currencies is possible. Now it is 3%.
• Buying foreign currency at the expense of gold and foreign exchange reserves. Their decrease leads to the instability of the ruble.
• Key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. If it rises, banks may raise interest on deposits. This encourages the population to keep money in national currency. When the interest rate goes down, the opposite process takes place.

• The expansion of the domestic production base leads to a decrease in imports, and the demand for foreign currency is reduced. A striking example of such strategic planning is the import substitution program.
• The country's GDP, the cost of energy resources. If these indicators fall in price, the exchange rate of the ruble grows against the dollar and vice versa.
• Reducing inflation. As a rule, the national currency strengthens during this period.
• Seasonal factor. For example, a decrease in the dollar exchange rate was recorded at the beginning of each quarter.
• Geopolitical factors. The rise in the ruble exchange rate can be influenced by sanctions against the country, the unstable situation in the world, conflicts of the Russian Federation with other countries. These factors create panic among the population. Trying to protect themselves from possible consequences, people start buying dollars.

The cost of currencies is influenced by the socio-political, economic situation in the world. Crisis periods are characterized by fluctuations in the foreign exchange markets.

Interesting! When is the Medical Day in 2022 in Russia

What will the dollar exchange rate be in October 2021

According to the analytical data of the ING group of banks (ING group), this year the dollar will gradually lose 9-10% of its value. They are echoed by experts from Goldman Sachs, one of the leading investment banking companies in the world. This forecast is primarily due to the fact that recovery and growth of the economies of the countries is forecasted. Demand for the main reserve currency, the dollar, will decrease. The low interest rate is also not conducive to the growth of the dollar.

Analysts of the investment group "Univer", who work on the stock market, predict a decline in the dollar to 70 rubles in the fourth quarter. So says its director Artem Tuzov. The devaluation of the dollar will be gradual.

Analysts of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation give calculations of what the dollar exchange rate will be in October 2021. At the beginning of the month, the planned rate will be in the region of 72.5 rubles, by the end it will decrease to 72.3. At the moment, the exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is 73.1304 rubles.

Outcomes

Whether analysts' forecasts come true, whether the dollar will fall or rise, what the dollar exchange rate will be in October 2021, depends on many factors. Based on those trends that can be collected and analyzed, it is planned to depreciate the dollar against the ruble. This opinion coincides with the analytics of the world's leading experts. The growth of the dollar can be provoked by unforeseen factors, events that analysts cannot calculate at the moment.