What will be the euro exchange rate in June 2020 in Russia

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 14:00

The recent breakdown of negotiations with OPEC + and the spread of the coronavirus have led to economic problems. The ruble exchange rate began to fall, while the dollar and euro moved to active growth. What will be the euro exchange rate in June 2020 in Russia? Consider the opinions of well-known analysts.

Optimistic forecasts

The PrognozEx agency assumes that by the beginning of trading on June 1, the rate will be 88.38 rubles. This can be called a positive forecast, because some experts predict 100 or more rubles per unit of European currency.

PrognozEx experts believe that by the end of the month the rate will rise even more, up to 90.22 rubles. During June, fluctuations in the range of 73-93, 2 rubles are possible.

The dynamics of the course is closely monitored by the Rambler. Finance portal. For all those interested, the editors have selected forecasts from the best brokers: Alpari, Libertex and InstaForex. The average forecast from experts for June 2020 is 72.73 rubles.

As a reminder, on January 1, 1 euro when converted into national currency was 69.37 rubles. In other words, analysts believe that the rate will be almost equal to that which was fixed before the situation with OPEC +.

More about brokers' predictions:

• Alpari - 77, 7 rubles;
• Libertex - 71, 20 rubles;
• InstaForex - 69, 28 p.

Vladislav Ginko, a lecturer at the RANEPA and an economist, believes that the leap in the euro is a short-term phenomenon. Financial markets will soon recover from the collapse of OPEC + and rates will return to their previous levels.

Already in June, you can expect values of 70-75 rubles. The situation could level out if the economies of France, Italy and Germany, which are now suffering from the coronavirus, also decline.

Pessimistic forecasts

The Economy Forecasting Agency predicts a disastrous outcome for the Russians. When asked what the euro exchange rate will be in June 2020 in Russia, the company's specialists announced a range of 104, 6-108, 53. In their opinion, trading will open at 104.66 rubles per unit of European currency. The euro will be fixed, reaching 106, 93.

Oleg Buklemishev, director of the Center for Economic Research at Moscow State University, warns: the euro may jump to 100 rubles by March 16 and gain a foothold at this mark until the summer. The expert believes that only the Russian government will be able to stop the growth of the currency if it starts negotiations with Western politicians. Otherwise, the events of "Black Tuesday" in 2014 will be repeated.

Goldman Sachs analyst Clemens Graf made a forecast two years ahead. He believes that the ruble will be able to return to its previous positions only in 2 years, in the I-II quarter of 2022. In the meantime, the national currency of Russia will be kept at approximately the same level.

In the next six months, Graf believes, a barrel will still be sold for $ 30, so the positions of the dollar and the euro against the ruble will not change. In June, we should expect a rate of 80-90 rubles.

What can affect the price of euros in rubles

What do fluctuations in the euro exchange rate depend on? To roughly understand the dynamics, you need to take into account the following factors:

• the cost of a barrel of oil;
• Central Bank policy;
• foreign policy relations of Russia.

The price of a barrel of oil is currently falling. Analysts consider the "golden mean" rate of $ 50 per 1 unit of volume.

However, now, as a result of unsuccessful negotiations with OPEC +, the price threatens to gain a foothold at around $ 30 per barrel. And you should not count on dramatic improvements: at the end of March, Russia will most likely withdraw from the OPEC + agreement. Other oil-selling countries will start to randomly sell their resources at reduced prices.

This will seriously affect the attractiveness of Russian raw materials for foreign buyers. There is a possibility that agreements with OPEC + will nevertheless be reached, but at the moment even the technical meetings of the association have been canceled.

Experts believe that the oil situation should not be expected to improve. But the policy of the Central Bank will help curb the growth of the euro.

Already now, the Central Bank has limited operations in foreign currency and has begun to sell off foreign exchange reserves in order to support the national economy. This is so far holding back the ruble from a sharp collapse, and the euro from the same sharp rise. Without this factor, by June one could safely expect growth and consolidation to the level of 100 rubles. for the euro.

Unlike the dollar, the euro can continue to rise. Therefore, analysts recommend that those who can transfer part of their savings into foreign currency do so. It is best to convert funds on exchanges, not exchangers.

Summarize

Financial agencies, brokers and bank representatives have made their own forecasts of what the euro exchange rate will be in June 2020 in Russia:

1. The minimum possible rate is 69 rubles. Such forecasts were made by the world famous broker "Alpari". However, by June, the euro is unlikely to reach this mark, because even at the beginning of 2020 the rate was higher.
2. The maximum possible growth is up to 106, 93. In July, fluctuations of up to 108-109 rubles per euro are allowed, but this rate will not last long. These pessimistic forecasts were published by the Economic Forecasting Agency.
3. The average forecast for June 2020 is 75-77 rubles per euro.