What will be the euro exchange rate in February 2021

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-01-18 00:05

Experts' opinions on what the euro exchange rate will be in February 2021 makes you wonder. There are opposite in meaning forecasts from banks and financial analysts, as well as different answers to questions about whether the rate will fall or go up.

A little about the situation

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Doubtful portals post confident forecasts with figures from 100 to 130 rubles per 1 unit of currency from a European conglomerate. But the question of what the euro exchange rate will be in February 2021 cannot be answered with confidence. One can only believe the cautious reservations of financial experts, where the forecast accuracy will be up to 70%.

Immediately after the tables with record high quotations of the euro against the ruble, analysts write about the fall of the national currency at the beginning of the year and its stabilization by the next new year.

According to pessimists, the euro will confidently gain momentum in the first quarter of 2021. The manifested volatility of the European currency gives, according to them, a wide scope for speculation on the difference in quotations.

Euro: stability and instability

The answer to the question of whether the EU currency will fall or rise depends on many factors. The Currency Consulting agency, which has been successfully operating since the end of the last century, explains to clients on what principles an accurate forecast for the nearest period is made:

• data of more than 30 factors are processed by the method of technical analysis;
• the opinions of reputable analysts (domestic and foreign) are taken into account;
• the opinions of large banks are carefully studied;
• the statistics of transactions carried out on the Moscow Exchange must be calculated;
• the situation in politics, economic wars and confrontations, unforeseen or forecasted risks are attached.

Forecast of Currency Consulting for the second month of 2021 will be 94, 3 rubles per 1 euro. In relation to January, it will add almost 6.5 points. However, in March it will drop by 8 points, and in April - by another 7. Such leaps in the euro will be observed throughout the year. The situation with the fall will be repeated in October and November, but in December the euro will "win back" almost 5 points and will stop at 74, 43.

At the same time, the independent agency PrognozEx assures its clients that quotations in early February will be 107.8, and by the end they will rise to 113.5, but by December they will still drop to 80.3.

The art of forecasting

The number of forecasts for the next year raises doubts about their reliability and the factors on the basis of which conclusions are drawn. The discrepancies in the table below can be seen especially clearly.

Forecast table of what the euro exchange rate will be in February 2021:

Whose opinion	February	Course fluctuations
Currency Consulting	94, 3 rubles	+6.5 points
PrognozEx.ru	107.8 rub.	+5, 75 points
Sberbank	RUB 145	Significant, from 112
UniCredit	From 110 rub.	Until 143 in early April
Gazprombank	From 110 rub.	Until 143 at the beginning of April, with a subsequent decline
APECON	From 94 rub.	1, 6- 22%
Currency Resource	From 95 rub.	downgrade
Summary forecast	122, 7	136, 01

Any forecast comes with a cautious warning that the data are only preliminary. They may change based on current changes:

• confrontations in the market;
• military action;
• unforeseen situations;
• new alliances between states;
• falling GDP amid the second wave of coronavirus;
• other troubles or beneficial transformations.

What the euro exchange rate may depend on

People outside the financial sector are confident that there is no significant relationship between the two leading world currencies. However, financial analysts are confident that their mutual influence is obvious. Also understandable are the discrepancies in the opinions of experts from 94 to 145 rubles per euro in February.

At the same time, no one recommends unequivocally investing all rubles in foreign bills, transparently hinting at the unpredictability of the foreign exchange market. Taking into account the relationship between the dollar and the euro, some risk factors can be calculated that raise doubts about the stability of European notes. At the same time, experts are obliged to take them into account.

Why the predictions for February 2021 may change:

1. The unpredictability of American economic policy affects all financial markets, including the European one.
2. Industrialists and exporters suffered losses not only because of the coronavirus, but also because of the American sanctions, which they were forced to join, despite the disadvantageousness of raising import duties in the United States.
3. The policy of protectionism led to the dominance of banks from developed countries to economically weaker ones. The destruction of industry in them led to an even wider gap between the economies of the subjects of the European Union.
4. There are some predictions about the inevitable withdrawal from the European Union of France, Germany, Spain and Italy at the beginning of 2022.
5. The dollar, according to some analysts, is about to fall by a third of its current value, and the debt of developed countries in Europe has long exceeded 100% of GDP. This is a forecast from U. Lindahl, head of a foreign exchange risk company.

Recommendations from reputable analysts have long been ambiguous regarding the actions of Russians who invest the ruble mass in one object of preference - currency (dollars or euros). Judging by the collapse in forecasts from banks and experts, analytical bureaus and foreign exchange risk management companies, the situation in the world is ambiguous, and it was aggravated by the global pandemic.

It is difficult to count on making money on the difference between buying now and selling in the future, if the difference in forecasts is almost 50 rubles between the maximum and minimum boundaries.

Outcomes

The most variable forecasts are given on financial portals, and it is difficult to determine which of them are trustworthy:

1. The collapse between the critical figures from 94 rubles. up to RUB 145 in February and March.
2. Some analysts are confident that the euro will reach record numbers in April, and almost half say that quotations will begin to fall in April.
3. Stability of national currencies is not promised either in the EU, or in the States, or in Russia.