Dollar exchange rate for February 2020

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-01-18 00:05

The forecast of the dollar exchange rate as a unit of account is of interest not only to employees of financial structures, but also to an ordinary consumer, since the standard of living and the ability to pay of ordinary citizens depends on it. Sberbank published a table for February 2020 by days, according to which the dollar seeks to strengthen.

Factors provoking exchange rate fluctuations

The Russian economy is strongly linked to foreign currencies, in particular the US dollar. After all, this is a world monetary unit, on the course of which the economic development of many states depends. The dollar is used to calculate in foreign markets - they are paid when buying foreign goods and selling their resources (oil, gas, metal, grain, and others).

The rate jumps in one direction or another may be due to unexpected or predictable factors. The first group includes events that are difficult to predict: military conflicts, various natural disasters (floods, earthquakes and other disasters). In the second case, we are talking about moments or events that have already happened or will occur in the near future (rate increase, sanctions).

The American currency is highly dependent on the following factors:

• world prices for "black gold";
• the rate of inflation and economic development in the States;
• political, trade and military disagreements.

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For example, the dollar exchange rate is influenced by the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, the trade war with China, sanctions against China, Iran and other major players present on the world stage. In other words, the more instability there is in the world, the stronger the dollar will be against the ruble.

The future of the American currency will be determined depending on the geopolitical situation and the state of the world economy as a whole. Experts suggest two scenarios for the development of events:

• A new burden of sanctions will be placed on Russia, or oil prices will begin to fall. In this case, the dollar will strengthen strongly against the Russian currency and will cost 100-120 rubles.
• The events taking place in the world will be favorable. Then, according to analysts, the value of the dollar in February 2020 will be 56 - 59 rubles.

In both cases, the dollar exchange rate by days will differ from the forecast for February 2020 given in the table.

For Russia, a neutral outcome should be considered the most profitable option. The fixed price of oil, a stable economy, the absence of additional sanctions - all these factors will have a positive impact on the establishment of the American currency rate. At the beginning of 2020, the dollar, presumably, will cost 67 - 69 rubles.

Forecast from Sberbank

It is almost impossible to accurately predict the direction of the course for a longer period. There are a lot of events in the world every day that, to one degree or another, affect the direction of the vector.

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Sberbank analysts assume that in the first half of 2020 the American currency will strengthen against other world currencies and, in particular, against the ruble. But this is only on condition that the United States pursues a policy of a strong dollar and certain US actions on the world stage.

Date, day of the week	Currency state	Start of the day	End of the day
1st of February	Will not change	0	0
February 2	Will not change	0	0
February 3rd	Strengthening	63, 98	64, 48
4 february	Strengthening	64, 36	64, 39
February 5th	Strengthening	64, 27	64, 75
February 6	Strengthening	64, 63	64, 94
7 february	Strengthening	64, 82	65, 02
8 february	Will not change	65, 02	65, 02
February 9th	Will not change	65, 02	65, 02
10 february	Weakening	64, 94	64, 6
February 11	Weakening	64, 48	64, 36
12th of February	Weakening	64, 24	63, 85
February 13	Weakening	63, 73	63, 56
The 14th of February	Weakening	63, 44	62, 94
February, 15	Will not change	62, 94	62, 94
16 february	Will not change	62, 94	62, 94
February 17	Weakening	62, 61	62, 6
18th of Febuary	Weakening	62, 48	62, 42
19 february	Strengthening	62, 3	62, 39
February 20th	Strengthening	62, 27	62, 52
21 february	Strengthening	62, 4	62, 58
February 22	Will not change	62, 58	62, 58
February 23	Will not change	62, 58	62, 58
24 February	Strengthening	62, 82	63, 13
25 February	Strengthening	63, 01	63, 98
26 february	Strengthening	63, 86	64, 23
February 27	Strengthening	64, 11	64, 52
28th of February	Strengthening	64, 4	65, 3

The data in the table by day from Sberbank is only approximate. They are focused on the actions of the financial markets at the moment. No expert can predict with confidence what will happen to the global economy in the near future, and even more so in February 2020.

Other banks

The opinion of Rosbank experts is somewhat different from the point of view of analysts from Sberbank and the Central Bank. Rosbank expects the dollar to fall to 63.5 in the fourth quarter of this year. And at the beginning of the next, 2020, the American currency will fall in price by another $ 0.55 and will cost 63 rubles. This will happen, according to experts, due to a reduction in capital outflow from the Russian Federation. A slight growth of the “American” is expected in the spring.

Analysts at Gazprombank use oil prices as the basis for calculating the dollar rate by day. According to their assumptions, "black gold" in February 2020 will cost almost $ 10 more than the current figures. But at the same time, the average value of the American currency will still increase, albeit only slightly.

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The bank notes that this forecast assumes the refusal of the Ministry of Finance from foreign exchange sales in favor of the National Welfare Fund and an increase in oil prices. The average dollar / ruble rate, according to Gazprombank analysts, will be 65.7.

Bonus

1. The dollar exchange rate is constantly fluctuating. Its cost is influenced by both foreign policy factors and the state of the American economy.
2. According to experts from the largest Russian banks - Sberbank, Central Bank and Gazprombank, in February 2020, the American currency will increase.
3. Rosbank analysts are inclined to a different point of view: the value of the "American" will go down, as the outflow of funds from Russia is expected to decrease.