What will be the dollar exchange rate in February 2021

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-01-12 17:37

When making preliminary forecasts, financial analysts rely on many factors that can support the US currency or put pressure on it. Find out the assumptions of various financial institutions and experts as to what the dollar exchange rate will be in February 2021.

What will help strengthen the dollar against the ruble

📢 Read the forecast for the dollar to the ruble rate in our specialized telegram channel @luchshie_akcii_ru about investing in the stock market 💰.

Invest ideas are also published on our channel. Result for 2020> 60% per annum ❕❕❕

The main factors that can have a negative impact on the Russian currency are:

1. Geopolitical risks. Particular attention is paid to anti-Russian sanctions, which, according to some experts, will intensify with the coming to power of Joe Biden.
2. Budgetary policy. The reduction in foreign exchange interventions by the RF Central Bank will deprive the ruble of the main support.
3. The second wave of the coronavirus epidemic could provoke a severe economic downturn.
4. Falling energy prices and declining export volumes.

Expert opinion

Analysts (most) are inclined to believe that the dollar will rise in price against the ruble at the beginning of 2021 (significantly or insignificantly).

But there are also more positive forecasts for the Russian currency.

For example, Vladimir Tikhomirov, a leading specialist at BCS Global Markets, builds analytics as to what the dollar exchange rate will be based on oil quotes. From his point of view, in January-February 2021, the cost of "black gold" will be about $ 45 per barrel, and by the end of the second half of the year - already $ 55.

In addition, the expert expects a gradual recovery of the Russian economy and the return of demand for resources, which will reduce the quotes of the American currency to 67 rubles per unit. But this will happen, in his opinion, no earlier than the second half of 2021.

Sergei Drozdov, an employee of the Finam investment holding, also relies on the price of oil in his assumptions. In the context of the gradual lifting of restrictive measures and an increase in energy consumption, he does not exclude the possibility of an increase in quotations for Brent crude to $ 60. With this development of events, the dollar will drop to 65-68 rubles.

Meanwhile, Yevgeny Nadorshin, chief analyst at the consulting firm PF Capital, does not see any accompanying factors for the strengthening of the ruble against the “American” and predicts a rise in the price of USD to 85 RUB.

The director of the dealing center of Metallinvestbank Sergey Romanchuk adheres to a similar point of view. According to his forecast, the growth of the American unit next year will reach 80 rubles. The financier believes that the main prerequisite for the implementation of this scenario is a new surge in the coronavirus epidemic, which will lead to an even greater economic recession.

Yegor Susin, the head of one of Gazprombank's departments, was less pessimistic. He predicts a range of 70-75 rubles per unit for USD, but does not exclude that the USD exchange rate in the first half of 2021 may decrease slightly due to seasonal factors.

The expert believes that the Russians will remain in the mode of low USD rates for some time and this will support the national currency. At the same time, Susin sees no potential for a significant rise in prices for "black gold", the cost of which, in his opinion, will not exceed $ 40 per barrel.

Economist, member of the Presidium of the Stolyp Club, Vladislav Zhukovsky, also considers the collapse of the ruble to be a completely natural phenomenon and expects the negative scenario to come true until February 2021. The analyst predicts the renewal of the historical minimum, noting at the same time that there are no obstacles to the further fall of the RUB against the “American” in the near future.

The head of the Accounts Chamber Alexei Kudrin adheres to the same point of view, who believes that the ruble has no chance to win back the March devaluation, and the Russian currency will remain in such a deplorable situation until the end of 2021.

Bloomberg and Fitch forecasts

One of the main providers of financial information, Bloomberg, reports that the dollar has weakened to 72 rubles per unit by the end of this year and to 70 rubles in the first three months of 2021. A more accurate forecast of whether the USD will fall or rise depends on the pace of recovery in international communications and the policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation regarding the volume of foreign exchange purchases, the agency believes.

Fitch analysts also predict a fall against the ruble for the “American”. So, in 2021 they expect a dollar at a price of 70 rubles, and in 2022 - 69 rubles.

In addition, the experts corrected forecasts for the deterioration of the economic situation in the Russian Federation. If earlier a decline in GDP was predicted by 5.8%, then the latest research showed a decline of only 4.9%.

A positive trend, according to experts, is associated with the adoption of anti-crisis measures to prevent a decrease in household income and an increase in unemployment, as well as a gradual increase in demand for raw materials and the recovery of oil prices.

Experts from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation also expressed their point of view on what will happen to the dollar in February 2021. According to their forecast, in the first half of 2021, an “American” will cost 68.73 rubles on average.

Month	Average rate	Course at the beginning of the month	End of month rate
January	67, 17	68, 73	67, 56
February	67, 27	69, 19	67, 44
March	67, 56	69, 56	67, 47
April	67, 67	69, 86	67, 87
May	67, 60	70, 17	68, 08
June	67, 73	70, 43	68, 14

Inflation risks for USD

The strengthening of the ruble, from the point of view of Vladimir Tikhomirov from BCS Global Markets, will be helped by the weakening of the “American”. Now the world economy is experiencing a glut of liquidity, and the associated inflationary risks, in the expert's opinion, are greatly underestimated.

When economic indicators recover, excessive inflation will lead to higher prices, which will provoke a fall in the dollar exchange rate, and after that the cost of other currencies and resources will rise.

Outcomes

1. Experts' opinions on the value of the dollar in February 2021 are mixed. The course will be determined depending on the pace of economic recovery in both countries and the geopolitical situation, which may change dramatically after the US elections.
2. An outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic with the re-introduction of quarantine measures could provoke a downturn in the economy and weaken the Russian currency.
3. In case of a positive scenario assuming an increase in oil prices, the “American” is expected to weaken to 68 rubles per unit.