How to Prepare for the 2020 Global Crisis

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 14:00

The media is overwhelmed with gloomy forecasts from experts about the global crisis that begins in 2020. There are various guesses about what will happen to the ruble. The common man frantically reads advice on how to prepare for the coming apocalypse, but does not know the root of all the problems.

What is known about the global crisis

The sources persistently discuss the topic of the global crisis. According to the supporters of the global conspiracy, the cyclical development of the economy is a kind of inevitability that occurs, according to various versions, once every ten years or once every 12 years (as symbols of the year according to the Chinese calendar).

For greater inevitability, all accompanying attributes are listed: lack of work, total layoffs, overproduction of products and lack of demand due to low consumer demand.

An elementary knowledge of history suggests that neither one nor the second theory is supported by historical facts. The first super-crisis was in the United States. If we consider it as the starting point, then neither 10 nor 12 years converge. The start was formed in 1929, and the peak, with its universal horrors, in 1933.

Adding an even number - it doesn't matter if it's 12 or 10 years old - invariably gets an odd date. Then it is not clear what kind of cyclicality is being discussed in 2008 and 2020.

Some experts refer to 3 unfavorable years in Russian history - 1998, 2008 and the current one, 2020. Between the first and second dates there is a decade, so pessimistic prophecies began in 2018 and then smoothly moved.

Nuriel Rubin's opinion on the global crisis in 2020

The largest number of references can be found in the words of Nouriel Roubini, the famous economist who predicted the 2008 financial recession.

He did talk about four mistakes in assessing the potential for a global crisis due to the spread of the 2020 coronavirus:

• the naivety of the assumption that the epidemic will only occur in China;
• no less touching delusions that it will be stopped, as they said at first, by the beginning of February, then by the end of March or the beginning of the second quarter, and now by the end of May;
• the rapid growth of the global economy after the onset of the pandemic is stopped;
• the ability to protect the market of a particular country from the consequences with the help of regulators and economic levers.

Paradoxically, the general scheme of the world crisis according to Nouriel Roubini seems to be extremely primitive, if we remember that the first prophecies about the coming financial apocalypse, hypothetically, neither sleep nor spirit knew that such a large-scale epidemic was coming.

After all, it is she who is now regarded by world experts as the main factor in the fall in prices in the oil industry, the decline of the tourism business (the main source of income for many countries), the development of pharmaceutical concerns and retail trade networks.

What happens and the likelihood of successful preparation

A careful analysis of what is happening reveals strange patterns and no less mysterious coincidences.

Experts' opinions are one-sided and do not reflect general trends:

1. T. Evdokimova sees a serious risk in the coming withdrawal of Great Britain from the European Union, but leaves behind the borders of Germany and Italy on the brink of recession, serious problems for Europeans due to the admission of countries with underdeveloped economies and external debts to the union.
2. V. Chernookiy, professor at NES, sees a serious threat to Russia in trade wars between the American, Asian and European segments of the world market. The decline in demand for Russian exports and oil prices began not today, but at least six years ago. And the world oil exporters are just as unprofitable as low oil prices as they are for Russia. Moreover, its dependence on the world market has decreased thanks to the sanctions imposed by the West.
3. An independent blogger under a pseudonym predicts the collapse of the Central Bank and a sharp jump in the value of bitcoins on this basis. According to his insistent assurances, the whole subtlety of how to prepare for the global crisis consists in the purchase of an already fairly forgotten virtual currency.
4. Nikita Krichevsky, an economist, was sure that there were no prerequisites for the development of the economic crisis. He could not have known about the development of the pandemic on a global scale. But this does not mean that other global players did not know about it.

How to prepare for the upcoming demand for drugs, immunostimulants, medical masks - pharmaceutical and biological companies were thinking back in 2003 and 2008, when localized outbreaks of SARS and MEPC were observed on a small scale.

We studied the reaction of the average man in the street, purchasing activity, and aspiration. But the global crisis will be in certain industries that have already fallen into disrepair, without affecting the creation of reserves, just in case.

Russian ruble and money from the population

In 2020, the scenario of the epidemic was implemented on a global scale, and behind any message about the impending apocalypse and advice on how to prepare, lies the dexterous hand of a manipulator: banking structures, stock exchanges, owners of shareholdings and securities in need of implementation.

The fall of the ruble, according to experts, will stop by early summer, the national currency may return to its previous level at the end of this year.

For those who hysterically shout about devaluation and depreciation in response to questions about what will happen to the ruble, you can recall a few real facts:

1. Placing deposits at low interest rates into the hands of banks due to the repeated lowering of the key rate by the Central Bank. The population, confident in extremely negative forecasts of what will happen to the ruble, are being pushed to deposits and deposits in order to preserve their savings.
2. Talking about the impending depreciation is beneficial for both developers and banks. The former will be able to sell the stale goods (in order to profitably place their savings, the demand from buyers will increase), the latter - to make money on mortgage loans.
3. It is also profitable for stock traders to say that the ruble will be very bad, because it encourages people to invest in securities.
4. Buying foreign currency for citizens equally gives money to those who trade it on the domestic market, and to those who own it, as a national means of payment.

There are few experts who are confident that, compared to other countries, the Russian ruble is relatively safe, that Russia has no external debt and has significant savings. They believe that in other countries the situation is developing exactly the opposite. But the voices of these specialists are drowning in the general and friendly chorus of pessimists.

The Russians have a rich experience of survival, but this time the country is no longer in the dependent position in which it was in 1998 and not even at the level of 2008.

Summarize

Do not rush to conclusions, panic and make hasty investments:

1. The global recession is being regulated, despite all the confidence of Roubini.
2. The stock exchange and banks are interested in taking away hidden funds from the population.
3. The coronavirus is possibly a planned factor in economic wars.
4. Any predictions are half true - both gloomy and good come true only in 50% of cases. Or don't come true.