What will be the dollar exchange rate in June 2021

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-01-18 00:05

Events taking place in 2020 around the world are making their own adjustments in the daily life of citizens, affecting the financial market. Let's find out what the dollar exchange rate will be in June 2021.

What affects the change in the exchange rate

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The analysis of the most important factors that can influence it will help to understand what will happen to the dollar exchange rate in June 2021. A significant impact on the growth of the currency is now being exerted by investor panic associated with the growing scale of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic.

Both in the United States and in many European countries, new incidence records are being set. All this leads to the fact that the work of many important institutions is limited, and this entails a decline in economic activity.

The lower the economic activity around the world, the more the demand for oil falls.

It's no secret that the dollar exchange rate, like the ruble exchange rate, also depends on the price of black gold. Also of great importance is who will become the head of the United States in the near future. Experts say that regardless of whether Trump or Biden is elected, both options can be viewed as unfavorable for Russia. This opinion is shared by Natalia Milchakova, representing the IAC "Alpari".

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How the dollar exchange rate will change: expert opinions

In general, the opinions of experts on whether the quotes of the American currency will fall or rise, depending on the elected American president, differ. Analysts believe that the rule of Joseph Biden could lead to new restrictive measures for Russia, because he is known as a fierce opponent of our country.

Joseph Biden is a politician who considers himself a fan of green technologies in the energy sector. Accordingly, one can expect a decrease in the impact of oil on various energy sectors. This may entail a new decline in quotations for black gold.

Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets, is confident that if Biden wins, the ruble will weaken. The expert predicts quotations at the level of 83-85 rubles per dollar. What will be the exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble in 2021, in particular, in June, will depend on the US policy towards the Russian Federation.

If America strengthens sanctions and comes up with new restrictive measures for our country, then the natural result will be a further increase in the value of the dollar. At the same time, Deev cites a forecast that if Donald Trump wins, the exchange rate may stay at 80 rubles for a while. for the dollar.

Experts are unanimous in the opinion that Trump's next term in office is unlikely to lead to significant improvements in Russia's position in the global market. Also, new sanctions against Gazprom are quite possible. And yet, if Trump is elected, restrictive measures may not be as harsh and dangerous for Russia as they might be as a result of Biden's election.

Natalya Milchakova says that the victory of the current head of the White House could lead to a decrease in the dollar exchange rate to 76 rubles. The expert further notes that the situation in the currency market will generally depend on the impact of the coronavirus on the global economy. For this reason, currency quotes in June 2021 will be determined by what the situation with the pandemic in the world will be like.

Forecasts for June 2021 from other analysts

The independent agency for forecasting the foreign exchange market PrognozEx believes that the dollar quotes in June 2021 will be 92.25 rubles.at the beginning of the month and 88, 09 - at the end. Agency representatives say that a slight increase in the price of the dollar should be expected in early 2021. Further, in their opinion, the ruble will gain a rate.

In general, analysts believe that the summer of 2021 will be a very favorable period for currency speculators, because volatility will increase.

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Dmitry Golubovsky, a financial analyst, predicts the dollar rate, which can range from 105 to 120 rubles. The analyst sees such an alignment in the event that Biden's party takes the leading positions in the United States. The politician will seek to ensure that Russia begins to pay off state and corporate debts.

The expert is confident that the new head of the White House may impose restrictions on the placement of debt securities by state corporations and the Russian government. These measures can lead to an increase in the yield to the US budget by up to 3-4 percent. In this case, the rate of the "American", according to the analyst, will begin to grow.

Possible quotes for June 2021 from Russian banks

It is too early to talk about accurate forecasts for June, since there are many circumstances that may change during the first half of 2021. German Gref says that despite not the most favorable events in the world today, the ruble continues to be underestimated, although it has potential against the dollar.

The head of Sberbank claims that if the export of Russian goods from Russia increases, and the situation with the coronavirus gradually returns to normal, it will be possible to achieve positive dynamics. As for June 2021, the financial analysts of Sberbank give a figure of 92.97 rubles. in the first decade of the month. At the end of June, they provide data on quotations at 88.93 rubles.

Alfa-Bank analysts also make their assumptions about what the dollar exchange rate may be in June 2021. According to them, quotations can be 93.18 rubles in the first ten days of the month, and 89.18 rubles at the end of June.

The head of VTB bank Andrey Kostin in the spring of 2020 said that he believes in maintaining the exchange rate of no more than 80 rubles per dollar, and that throughout 2021 the position of the domestic currency will only strengthen. He believes in the Central Bank and its actions to keep the course.

In accordance with fresh forecasts from the methodologists of a financial institution, the dollar exchange rate may be 92.91 rubles in June 2021. in the first decade of the month and 88, 86 rubles. - at the end of June.

The forecast from Russian Standard Bank assumes slightly higher quotes than analysts from Sberbank and VTB Bank expect. They are of the opinion that in June 2021 the rate will be 94.98 rubles at the beginning of the month. and 91, 27 at the end.

Experts' forecasts can be found in the table:

Forecast from Russian banks for June 2021	Dollar exchange rate, rub., Beginning of the month, until June 10	Dollar exchange rate, rub., End of the month, from 20 to 30 June
Sberbank	92, 97	88, 93
Alfa Bank	93, 18	89, 18
VTB 24	92, 91	88, 86
Russian standard	94, 98	91, 27

Outcomes

If we give the average figure for the estimated dollar rates for June 2021, we get a mark from 92 to 94 rubles.

1. The future of the domestic currency and its position against the dollar will be influenced by the results of the American elections, as well as the further situation regarding the coronavirus. If the pandemic demands more severe restrictions, the economic sphere will suffer, and the price of fuel will fall accordingly. This will entail a weakening of the ruble.
2. Despite the continued strengthening of the dollar, representatives of various financial institutions are confident in the prospects for the ruble and advise Russians not to fall into pessimism about its future.