What will be the dollar exchange rate in September 2019

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 14:00

The dollar exchange rate for September 2019 worries many Russians who have to deal with the exchange of American currency. But for her, the forecast from Sberbank is worse than for the euro, although the table given on financial portals indicates the strengthening of the dollar due to the decline in the value of the Russian ruble.

Obvious and non-obvious premises

According to financial experts, there are currently no circumstances that could lead to a rapid soaring of the dollar in August, September and other autumn months of 2019. Various prerequisites were taken into account in the preparation of the forecast given in the table from Sberbank.

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Some of them are visible to the uninitiated eye, and a certain number can only be taken into account by a competent person.

A financial expert, in his analytical research, must provide for various factors, sometimes completely unpredictable:

• the rise in oil prices, one of the main sources of replenishment of the country's budget and stabilization of the domestic ruble;
• actions of politicians in the world arena that can cause destabilization, or, conversely, increase the stability of the situation in the political arena;
• the presence of existing sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation and the potential for new repressive measures;
• even the operations of financiers and the population, carried out with the purchase and sale of various currencies, can cause fluctuations in the foreign exchange market: a massive purchase of the euro will lead to its growth and cause a natural drop in the ruble and dollar, as well as the massive sale of the latter.

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Sberbank of Russia enjoys an invariably high and well-deserved reputation among the population, in the reliability rating it is in the top three, therefore the table with the forecast from its analysts on the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate for September 2019 deserves some confidence.

However, even financial experts of the highest category are unable to predict political events provoked by accidental incidents and the policies of other major Russian banks, which are trying to use the available tools to put pressure on the prevailing exchange rate.

What to expect in late summer and early fall

According to the already established trend, the dollar exchange rate will increase significantly in the middle of summer, even, rather, closer to the beginning of August. The most contradictory conclusions have been posted about the Russian ruble for this period - some experts are optimistic and claim that positive dynamics will begin. There are also extremely negative options, with frightening predictions and numbers.

But in the second half of 2019, after studying any given forecasts, the ruble exchange rate will fall from 66.14 rubles on July 1 to 67.83 before the New Year holidays.

The table from Sberbank for September of this year looks like this:

Dollar rise	Decrease in rate	Relative stabilization
September 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 16, 17, 18, 30	September 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 19, 20, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27	September 1, 7, 8, 14, 15, 21, 22, 28, 29

It is not possible to identify clear patterns in the rate increase by days of the week in the forecast table. For example, on Wednesday, September 4, a decline is expected, while on the same day of the week, but already on the 11th, a small jump is expected, as well as on the next Wednesday, 18. However, on September 25, the middle of the week will be marked by a decline in the rate.

But unlike other Mondays, on the 30th, not a decrease, but an increase in the dollar is predicted, albeit by 0, 14.

It is not known whether it is worth relying unconditionally on the opinion of Sberbank, which works mainly with lending to the population and ruble deposits. According to his analysts, in September 2019, with all the fluctuations, the dollar will be in the collapse from 64, 29 rubles, on September 2, to 63, 13 - on Monday, 30.

Forecasts from other banks range from 63-64 rubles to 70-75. As for foreign financiers, who are impatiently awaiting the collapse of the Russian Federation, their level of pessimism in relation to the ruble implies a decline in quotations to almost 95. What is very unexpected, analysts from Singapore predict a drop in the dollar rate in Russia to 58 rubles.