What will be the dollar exchange rate in September 2020

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-01-18 00:05

The situation in the global economy, in the oil market, which developed at the beginning of the year, also affected the dollar exchange rate. Experts have weighty and well-reasoned assumptions about what the dollar exchange rate will be in September 2020.

Factors affecting the dollar exchange rate

Forecasting the rate of any currency implies, first of all, the study of factors that can affect it in one way or another. These include various events taking place both within the country and abroad, and affecting the world economy. Such events or processes are conventionally divided into three general groups.

The first includes internal factors occurring within the country whose currency is being valued. This category includes:

• gross domestic product (GDP), which characterizes the total market value of all finished goods and services that are produced in the country throughout the year;
• state policy, which consists in the adoption of measures and laws that in one way or another have an impact on the economic state of the country;
• the economy of the state, with all its components, the rate of the Central Bank;
• inflation rates: the growth of the aggregate price level directly affects the exchange rate of the national currency;
• the level of industrial production: if plans are not fulfilled, production is unable to provide exports or serve the population of the country properly, and this will negatively affect the position of the monetary unit;
• the state of the purchasing power of citizens: its decline will lead to a decrease in the value of the national currency.

The second group of factors that make it possible to predict what the dollar exchange rate will be in September 2020 are external. These are the ones that take place outside the country.

These include the following:

• the presence or absence of conflicts between countries;
• international economic relations;
• pricing policy for precious metals;
• oil pricing policy: its presence in the country in large quantities makes the currency dependent on how expensive or cheaply black gold is sold.

The third group of factors affecting the exchange rate includes those that cannot be predicted. They are characterized by their suddenness and complete unpredictability of appearance.

As such, a natural disaster, a man-made disaster, or a large-scale terrorist attack can act. The degree and direction of the influence of such an event cannot be determined in advance: it can both weaken the position of the national currency and strengthen it.

Possible scenarios

According to experts, there are three options for the dollar's behavior against the ruble.

Deplorable

This situation implies:

• a sharp economic downturn, the makings of which, according to experts, are already being observed;
• a noticeable slowdown in the rate of industrial production in the country;
• decline in oil prices;
• introduction of new sanctions restrictions against the Russian Federation;
• a noticeable decrease in the gross domestic product of the Russian Federation (about 3%).

The consequence of all these events may be a deterioration in the state of Russia's investment policy, since in this regard it will become less attractive for foreign investors. The result of such a development of events is an increase in the exchange rate to 80-90 rubles per dollar.

Practical

This situation is more stable than the previous one. It is characterized by the following parameters:

• decline in GDP (about 1%);
• the country's economy is developing, but not fast enough;
• profit from the sale of oil in excess of 40 rubles / barrel is allocated to the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Russia;
• there is an artificial containment of the growth of the ruble by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

The development of such a scenario will result in a price per dollar equal to approximately 64-65 rubles.

Favorable

Some experts are optimistic and believe that the dollar will fall and the ruble's position in the international arena will noticeably strengthen. This option will become possible due to popular unrest in the United States in connection with the presidential elections. In addition, in order for the depreciation of the dollar to really occur, it is necessary to achieve the following:

• GDP grew by about half a percent;
• sanctions against the Russian Federation were lifted;
• oil prices rose to $ 92-94 per barrel.

If the list does not include unforeseen factors related to the third group, then the dollar exchange rate may fall to 40-45 rubles. All three scenarios are predictive, they depend on many factors.

Experts' opinions

Sberbank specialists believe that the dollar rate, despite minor fluctuations, will remain stable. And a statesman like German Oskarovich Gref considers it possible to weaken the ruble's position only if an economic crisis occurs in the country and the oil price drops sharply.

Other opinions on what the dollar exchange rate will be in September 2020:

1. As a result of their research, employees of the Economic Forecasting Agency (APECON) made a monthly forecast and believe that by the beginning of autumn the dollar will be equal to 66-68 rubles.
2. According to Alexander Abramov, chief analyst at Solidarity Bank, an increase in the dollar exchange rate to 65-67 rubles will be possible only in the event of an international economic crisis.
3. Experts from Promsvyazbank believe that from July this year, the ruble's position against the US currency will noticeably weaken until the beginning of next year. The predicted value of the dollar is 65 rubles.
4. According to the Central Bank, the dollar rate will not exceed 68 rubles until 2021.
5. Loko-Bank predicts an increase in the exchange rate to 70 rubles only under the influence of such negative factors as a significant deterioration of the situation in the global economy, increased sanctions pressure from other countries against the Russian Federation and a decrease in profits from the sale of oil, gas and other energy resources.

September Daily Forecast USD

Estimated values of what the dollar exchange rate will be in September 2020 are shown in the table below.

date	Estimated value of the dollar, rubles
01.09.2020	65, 2-65, 7
02.09.2020	63, 8-64, 3
03.09.2020	63, 8
04.09.2020	63, 4-63, 8
05.09.2020	63, 4
06.09.2020	63, 4
07.09.2020	62, 9-63
08.09.2020	63-63, 1
09.09.2020	63, 1-63, 5
10.09.2020	63, 5-63, 9
11.09.2020	63, 9-64, 4
12.09.2020	64, 4
13.09.2020	64, 4
14.09.2020	65, 2-65, 3
15.09.2020	65, 3-65, 4
16.09.2020	65, 4
17.09.2020	65, 5-65, 7
18.09.2020	65, 7-65, 8
19.09.2020	65, 8
20.09.2020	65, 8
21.09.2020	65, 5
22.09.2020	65, 3-65, 5
23.09.2020	65-65, 3
24.09.2020	64, 5-65
25.09.2020	64, 4-64, 5
26.09.2020	64, 4
27.09.2020	64, 4
28.09.2020	63, 1-63, 5
29.09.2020	63, 1-63, 7
30.09.2020	62, 7-62, 8

When compiling the table, data provided by analysts of the independent forecast bureau PrognozEx were used.

Summarize

1. It is rather difficult to predict the exchange rate for the long term. More accurate values can be obtained only closer to the analyzed period.
2. It is worth waiting for the exact values of the indicators important for the analysis, which will appear closer to the fall.
3. The Central Bank is confident that the dollar rate is unlikely to exceed 68 rubles.