Dollar exchange rate for August 2019

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 14:00

The ruble is falling steadily compared to the world's leading currencies. As of July 18, 2019, the dollar rate is 62, 98, and until recently, experts believed that the gap would continue to widen. However, there have recently been encouraging statements from Sberbank experts. They believe that in the second half of the year, in particular in August, the national currency will strengthen its position.

Forecast from Sberbank

Initially, Sberbank experts believed that the dollar rate by the end of the year would be 66 rubles, that is, it would continue to grow. The negative forecast lasted until mid-July, but now specialists have reason to believe that the situation will change:

1. The ruble has been feeling confident on the stock exchange lately. As a result of trades in recent days, it has strengthened by several points.
2. The policy of the US Federal Reserve, one of the main currency regulators, may soften. Experts around the world are convinced of this. It is believed that on July 31, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will order a rate cut by 25 basis points.
3. Changes in the exchange rate are also influenced by the internal economic state of the country, and in the second half of the year it is traditionally improving. Inflation is decreasing due to the income from the harvest, which has been actively implemented since July-August.

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In addition, Russian companies have recently increased their support for the national currency. They exchange the currency received from the export for the ruble and pay taxes to them.

Table with forecasts of the dollar exchange rate for August and the second half of 2019 from Sberbank:

Period	Initial projections	Current
quarter, including August	65	62
4th quarter	66	63

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Sberbank noted that there are negative factors that can lead to an increase in the dollar. So, in the fall, the season of additional vacations usually begins: those who did not have time to go abroad at the height of summer fill this gap at the end of August and September. To pay abroad, citizens of the Russian Federation begin to massively change the ruble. This has a negative effect on the ruble's growth reserve. With a particularly strong impact, the rate can be 64-65.

Opinions of other experts

Representatives of other banks criticized the table with forecasts of the dollar rate for August 2019 from Sberbank. Veles Capital representative Y. Krachenko believes that the foreign currency will try to overcome the 64 mark and continue its growth.

T. Nigmatullin, an employee of Otkritie Broker, claims that the situation is ambiguous: in early August, the national currency may both collapse and strengthen. It all depends on the decision of the US Federal Reserve.

Expert Artem Deev said that in August the rate will also be lower than the researchers of Sberbank believe. He points to a range between 58 and 62 rubles per dollar.

There are also supporters of Sberbank's position. The expert of the stock market "BCS Broker" S. Gaivoronsky agreed with the forecasts.

One thing is clear: in the coming month, Russians need to closely monitor the state of the market. Of key importance is the decision of the US Federal Reserve, which will become known on July 31. Until then, both experts and the public can only speculate.