What will be the dollar exchange rate in July 2020

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-01-18 00:05

After the collapse of the Western economy due to the coronavirus pandemic, which paralyzed the sphere of international transportation, tourism, retail and other industries, many Russians are interested in what the dollar / ruble exchange rate will be in July 2020. Will there be a collapse in prices on the Russian market and what will happen to the accumulation of citizens in the current situation.

The fall in oil prices to negative levels and the rise in the price of the dollar in the Russian Federation

After the collapse of prices for oil futures on April 20 to negative values, the dollar rate on the 21st again showed an increase. According to Vasily Koltashev, head of the Center for Political Economic Research of the Institute of the New Society, the American currency is now in a difficult situation. The dollar is depreciating in connection with the Fed's policy aimed at injecting into the American and world economy an astronomical amount of several tens of trillions of USD, which will invariably entail its devaluation.

V. Koltashev points out that after the unprecedented collapse of prices on the oil market on April 20, the Russian ruble showed a fairly strong position on April 21. According to the expert, the current situation on the oil market should have led to a price of 80-90 rubles. for one dollar, but in practice the rate increased only to the level of 77, 27 rubles.

The specialist believes that such a quotation was influenced by the fact that the USD itself fell in price in the light of the economic crisis in the United States and in the world. In such a situation, it is very difficult to predict what the dollar exchange rate will be in July 2020 due to the high volatility in the foreign exchange market of the leading national currencies.

The huge infusion of money by the FRS into the market will inevitably lead to a devaluation of the USD, but when this will happen, it is difficult to predict. V. Koltashev believes that the parallel fall of the dollar will help the ruble to survive the crisis more smoothly and will bring oil prices on a positive track.

Benefits of cheaper dollar for Russian exports

The expert believes that amid the collapse of many sectors of the American economy, including the oil industry, amid the coronavirus epidemic and rising unemployment in the United States, the US dollar will weaken throughout 2020. But not abruptly, but gradually. This will take place in the midst of a large-scale depression that the American economy has entered.

In the context of the issuance of paper money by the Fed, prices for food products and consumer goods will rise against the background of the depreciation of the American currency. From the point of view of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, this is a favorable situation for Russia, which will help at least partially recover the financial losses of the state due to the fall in oil prices.

To understand what the dollar exchange rate will be in July 2020, no one yet takes it. At the same time, the expert points out that the deficit of the Russian state budget of 5, 6 trillion rubles, which arose as a result of the collapse of the oil market, can be corrected at the end of the year thanks to the cheap USD.

The weakening of the American currency, according to Vasily Koltashev, could lead to an increase in Russian oil prices after the world begins to emerge from the crisis created by the coronavirus pandemic.

The second wave of weakening of the American currency

The coronavirus pandemic has kicked off a second wave of US dollar depreciation. The first took place in the period 2008-2011, when the international Washington consensus, focused on the world division of labor and foreign markets, was still in effect.

Then the Fed also compensated for the crisis by issuing paper money. The first wave of the crisis differed from the current one in that other countries participating in international trade were actively buying new US dollars. Due to this, it was possible to achieve the stability of the American currency.

Today, other countries are not going to build up foreign exchange reserves with the help of USD. This will inevitably lead to its weakening and growth of inflation within the United States.

Dmitry Golubovsky, analyst at Kalita-Finance financial group, also agrees that the time for a weak dollar is coming. But at the same time, he points out that the financial circles in the United States, which manage the emission of money, will try to maintain a strong position to the end, using the complex mechanisms of the modern financial system. At the same time, Golubovsky points out that the era of the strong dollar has already ended.

It will be possible to feel the decrease in the price of USD only in 5-6 years. The Fed will do everything to keep the fall of the American currency as slowly as possible. Today the dollar will be in demand in the market as a defensive currency.

Forecast table by day of the dollar exchange rate in July 2020

Year	Day of week	Current Central Bank rate,	Course forecast, Direction at the end of the day Exchange, start of the day until 11.00 o'clock Stock exchange, end of the day after 14.00 hours
2020	July 1, Wednesday		▲ will rise 84, 71 87, 04 +2, 33
	July 2, Thursday		▲ will rise 76, 82 77, 24 +0, 41
	July 3, Friday		▲ will rise 77, 24 77, 92 +0, 68
	4 July, Saturday		► will not change 77, 92 77, 92 -
	July 5, Sunday		► will not change 77, 92 77, 92 -
	6 July, Monday		▲ will rise 79, 7 79, 98 +0, 27
	July 7, Tuesday		▲ will rise 79, 98 80, 52 +0, 55
	July 8, Wednesday		▼ will decrease 80, 52 79, 98 –0, 55
	July 9, Thursday		▼ will decrease 79, 98 79, 43 –0, 55
	July 10, Friday		▼ will decrease 79, 43 77, 65 –1, 78
	July 11, Saturday		► will not change 77, 65 77, 65 -
	July 12, Sunday		► will not change 77, 65 77, 65 -
	July 13, Monday		▼ will decrease 75, 3 73, 13 –2, 18
	July 14, Tuesday		▼ will decrease 73, 13 72, 58 –0, 55
	Wednesday 15 July		▼ will decrease 72, 58 72, 39 –0, 19
	July 16, Thursday		▼ will decrease 72, 39 72, 03 –0, 36
	July 17, Friday		▼ will decrease 72, 03 71, 48 –0, 55
	July 18, Saturday		► will not change 71, 48 71, 48 -
	July 19, Sunday		► will not change 71, 48 71, 48 -
	July 20, Monday		▲ will rise 71, 76 72, 03 +0, 27
	July 21, Tuesday		▲ will rise 72, 03 72, 44 +0, 41
	Wednesday 22 July		▲ will rise 72, 44 73, 13 +0, 68
	July 23, Thursday		▲ will rise 73, 13 73, 46 +0, 34
	July 24, Friday		▲ will rise 73, 46 75, 18 +1, 72
	July 25, Saturday		► will not change 75, 18 75, 18 -
	July 26, Sunday		► will not change 75, 18 75, 18 -
	July 27, Monday		▲ will rise 77, 37 79, 17 +1, 79
	28 July, Tuesday		▲ will rise 79, 17 80, 11 +0, 95
	July 29, Wednesday		▲ will rise 80, 11 80, 21 +0, 1
	July 30, Thursday		▲ will rise 80, 21 80, 66 +0, 45
	July 31, Friday		▼ will decrease 80, 66 78, 47 –2, 19

The exchange rate is indicated for 1 USD in rubles with settlements after trading on the UTS MICEX.

Summarize

For those who want to know what the dollar exchange rate will be in July 2020, remember the following:

1. The ruble will steadily decline against the dollar during 2020.
2. At the end of July, the cost of one USD can be 88, 69 RUB.
3. The data presented in the table is not accurate and is based on estimates based on current events.
4. The presented forecast does not include force majeure factors such as a pandemic or a collapse in oil prices, which in a short time can radically change the situation on the foreign exchange market.