What will be the dollar exchange rate in July 2021

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 14:00

According to financial analysts and experts, the dollar rate this summer will not exceed 79 rubles. Having considered in more detail the factors affecting the value of the currency, it is possible to make a forecast of what the dollar exchange rate will be in July 2021. The ruble exchange rate may rise if Russia beats the United States at least one position.

Factors affecting the growth of the dollar

In spring, the ruble was strengthening, albeit slightly, against the dollar. In the summer, other factors affect the dynamics of the change in the exchange rate of the American currency.

Anti-Russian sanctions

US sanctions against Russia are strengthening the dollar. The American threat of economic sanctions, like the sword of Damocles, constantly hangs over our country. The confrontation between the two geopolitical engines grows and weakens.

Interesting! Minimum wage in 2022 in Russia from January 1

The growth of tensions directly affects the dollar rate - the value of the currency immediately rises. These changes are insignificant in relation to the general dollar / ruble ratio, especially since in a few days the dollar rate is decreasing again. But the growth of the currency plays a significant role for business if purchases are made in dollar terms.

Key rate of the Russian Central Bank

With a decrease in the ruble rate, foreign investors lose interest in the Russian economy. It makes sense to buy assets of another state at a higher rate.

It is profitable for foreign investors to invest in Russian business with a significant difference between the rate in the Central Bank and the United States.

The weaker the ruble, the less interest in investing in Russian business. According to the head of the Central Bank of Russia, the rate will be reduced during the summer. Although this statement is conjectural, it lowers the value of the ruble and strengthens the dollar.

World economic problems

With an economic downturn, the threat of a pandemic, and the emergence of new strains of the virus, global markets are changing. If the market falls, investors sell emerging market currencies such as the ruble and buy the euro and dollar, which in this case serve as protective functions.

Interesting! New payments for children in 2021 and the latest news

Knowledge of the international situation and the ability to assess risks provide a more detailed picture of course changes.

What will be the dollar exchange rate in July 2021 - forecast

In the second month of summer, you can make a prediction about the dollar rate, whether it will fall or rise. Several factors will affect the decline in the value of the dollar:

• Demand for risky assets. If the key rates of the largest world economies are near zero, investors will be forced to buy risky currencies, which include the ruble. The US key rate for today is 0.25%; Japan - -0.1%; UK - 0.1%.
• The growth of the Russian economy during 2021 will ensure the strengthening of the ruble. The work of various industries is gradually recovering. The crisis had little impact on some areas: for example, gold and ferrous metals mining. It is important for these industries to establish sales of products. The food industry works bypassing all sanctions. Russians are already accustomed to buying domestic products. Relations with other countries are also being established: Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, interrupted by the coronavirus pandemic. The construction industry is getting out of the crisis the hardest. But the labor market will soon be replenished with a new workforce. The construction of residential buildings and social and cultural facilities, which has been frozen for a while, will also resume.
• Strong oil demand and constant price per barrel. The recovery in oil demand will be gradual. The production of petroleum products should accumulate capacity. Refining should reach the pre-crisis level, but at the same time production should not lag behind. With the opening of borders, the restoration of international communication, the oil industry will gradually move to full capacity. And the resumption of charter flights began in spring. Most of the borders are expected to open in the summer of 2021. Air traffic with Egypt, which has not been for several years, has already resumed.

If the dollar depreciates, its minimum cost will be 74 rubles, the maximum - 77. World analysts expect the dollar / ruble exchange rate in the region of 74-76 during July.

What will affect the dollar exchange rate in July

A global change in the dollar exchange rate should not be expected for a number of reasons:

• The regulator of the American rate left it unchanged at 0-0.25% damage.
• Non-residents of Russia have already withdrawn their assets due to the deterioration of foreign policy and tightening of monetary relations.
• Russian companies continue to increase their currency reserves. This is due to the payment of annual dividends.
• Russians are expected to increase their spending with the height of summer holidays and the resumption of outbound tourism.
• Oil prices remain at the same level.

Calmness on the geopolitical background and the success in the negotiations between Biden and Putin will not allow the dollar to jump up sharply.

Outcomes

What will be the dollar rate in July 2021, no expert can give an accurate forecast. All conclusions are speculative. The value of the dollar may decrease due to the growth of the Russian economy, but it will increase with a decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia.