Should I take a mortgage in 2020

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 14:00

Mortgage lending helps to solve the housing problem once and for all. According to experts, is it profitable to take out a mortgage in 2020, or is it worth not rushing yet?

Changes in the real estate market

There have been fundamental changes in the legislation governing mortgage lending. So, since last year, a law on mortgage vacations was adopted, so that in the event of unforeseen circumstances, a citizen has the right to freeze or reduce loan payments for a total of up to 6 months (in a row or fractionally).

It can only be used by borrowers for a single housing worth up to 15 million rubles. According to the conditions, the reason for obtaining a credit vacation may be disability or the loss of more than a third of income due to a prolonged illness (from 2 months) or loss of work.

The bank will need documentary evidence in order to consider it within 5 days, make a decision and give an answer on changing the payment procedure.

Came into force 214-FZ "On participation in the shared construction of apartment buildings and other real estate." To make transactions with equity holders more secure, the budget is now kept in special escrow accounts, which are frozen (deposited) until the developer fulfills its obligations.

Mortgage rate in 2020

Judging by the measures taken to support young families and, in general, based on the situation on the real estate market, a rather favorable situation is emerging for solving housing issues.

This is a record low inflation, which reached 2.2% in the lower segment, which, according to forecasts of the Central Bank, will accelerate to 4%, and the minimum prices for real estate due to the fall of the ruble and the crisis.

In the coming years, the state plans to continue to reduce the mortgage rate to 8%, at the beginning of 2020, after a slight increase, it has already reached 9%, and since April 23 - 6.5%.

There are special conditions for certain categories of citizens:

1. Up to 6% per annum for new buildings for families where the second child was born no earlier than 2018, and 2% per annum for natives of the Far East with mandatory registration from 5 years.
2. Only 0, 1-3% per annum for rural residents.
3. Refunds for a new building or secondary housing under the maternity capital program 466 617 rubles for families where the first child was born (or was adopted) in 2020, an additional 150 thousand rubles. on the second (in total with the unused balance, 616 617 rubles comes out) and, accordingly, another 450 thousand rubles. on the third. These conditions also apply to the previously received mortgage.
4. To stimulate borrowers, there are many different programs for subsidizing and refinancing new housing. There is no shortage of apartments under construction, the weighted average rate is about 10%.

Fact! Since April 24, the key refinancing rate of the Central Bank has decreased to 5.50% by the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia.

But it will depend on the ruble exchange rate and, if it is made a little higher, then according to the most pessimistic scenario, it can rise to 9-10%, which will lead to an overpayment of 12%. Since no major changes are expected, according to experts, it is worth taking a mortgage in 2020. And whether this is so, only time will tell.

Conditions for issuing a mortgage

Ideally, before applying for a targeted long-term loan for housing, you need to contact a mortgage expert at a real estate agency. He will help you choose the right bank based on the individual characteristics of the borrower's situation. At the same time, many factors are taken into account, even the seemingly insignificant ones.

Choosing a lender and a program is a daunting task. Therefore, you should be as honest as possible with your agent so that he helps save money, time and correctly assess all the risks.

The usual terms for a loan are as follows:

1. Down payment from 10 to 15%.
2. The loan amount depends only on income and can vary in a very wide range (on average, it is about 2 million rubles for the Sverdlovsk region and almost 3 times more in Moscow).
3. The most advantageous offers are for a period of 5 to 10 years. In general, the crediting period can be from 1 year to 50 years.
4. Decrease in interest in case of early repayment or only annuity (without recalculation) contributions.
5. The amount and conditions of insurance.
6. The package of documents depends on the loan program, family composition and the financial situation of the borrower.

It is expected that the requirements for bank capital and risk assessment of borrowers will soon be tightened. This will lead to a sharp increase in mortgage refusals.

Market indicators

Before the introduction of quarantine, there was an outbreak of a record number of mortgage loans issued - 170,000 in January and February 2020, which is 15,000 more than the same period last year. In mid-March, before the announcement of the "weekend", economists recorded that Russians began to take out mortgages more often.

The excitement is associated with the desire of people to profitably invest the unstable Russian currency in real estate during reduced rates. For Russia, a rate of up to 12% per annum is considered profitable.

During the coronavirus pandemic, the global economy is under tremendous pressure, but a weaker dollar softened the ruble's fall. In addition, quarantine measures will be lifted in the near future, a return to the usual way of life, and oil prices stabilized. This means that even under the current conditions, the Central Bank is unlikely to increase loan rates, as it did in 2014, when they soared to 18%.

Not everyone can pull out a mortgage in a crisis

According to Rosstat forecasts, more than half of Russians will face a serious problem of unemployment. In Moscow, this indicator has grown by 45% only since March. In connection with the consequences of measures to contain the pandemic, the economic situation in Russia and in the world will significantly worsen. According to forecasts, the RF GDP will decrease by 3.9%.

In connection with the rise in the cost of raw materials and capital outflow, housing prices will rise, and wages, most likely, on the contrary, will decrease. Personal risks will increase, which means that even fewer people will pull the mortgage than expected. Now even people with an average per capita income of up to 50 thousand rubles. it will be more difficult for each family member to get a loan at a favorable rate.

It is worth considering carefully whether you need to take out a mortgage right now. In 2020, a crisis is inevitable, so it is worth listening to the opinion of experts.

The main thing is to soberly assess your capabilities and weaknesses in order to be ready to respond quickly and not panic in an unstable environment. Before signing a contract, it is better to weigh several times the likelihood of how high the risk of being unemployed due to a business closure or a layoff of staff is.

Summarize

1. It is unprofitable to take out a mortgage if the rates are higher than 12%. Although for several decades, prices for building materials will inevitably rise, which will lead to an increase in prices in the housing market.
2. The Central Bank rate decreased to 6.5% from April 24, 2020.
3. Those who want to take advantage of the state materkapital program or invest their own savings, without risking being out of work, can safely decide in favor of a mortgage.
4. It is important to carefully choose the program and the most profitable bank.