What will be the euro exchange rate in April 2021

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 14:00

In turbulent and economically difficult times, people are preoccupied with how to save available funds. In Russian history, it is not uncommon for the ruble to fall significantly or even depreciate. All this makes Russians think about buying an alternative currency. Let's find out what the euro exchange rate will be in April 2021.

Expert opinions

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Evgeny Kogan, investment banker, professor at the Higher School of Economics, is of the opinion that the euro will compete with the dollar, but will remain at the level of 1, 12-1, 21. The expert says that in the case of the European currency, a significant drawdown is unlikely to be expected. In the best case, the quotes may reach 1.05-1.08. The banker believes that Russia still has quite large reserves, due to which the ruble is unlikely to fall significantly against the euro.

Nikolai Neplyuev, a financier and member of the IDA's Association of Professional Directors, argues that amid panic over the coronavirus pandemic, the ruble remains an undervalued currency.

He believes that the demand for the Russian vaccine against coronavirus, as well as the possible stabilization of geopolitical factors, could provide more opportunities for the domestic currency. In addition, according to the expert, in April, when annual settlements are behind, the ruble will also strengthen against the euro and will continue to show positive dynamics.

Despite the expert's positive attitude, it is impossible not to take into account among the factors of influence the scale of the second wave of the epidemic, the state budget deficit and changes in the legislation regarding financial issues that are not the most favorable for the people.

The analytical bureau PrognozEx provides information according to which the euro exchange rate will increase at the beginning of 2021, after which it will begin to decline. By the beginning of April, the quotes will be 119.52 rubles. per euro, and by the end of the month will fall to 111, 47.

Evgeny Marishin, trustee of IFC Solid, designates the ruble as one of the weakest currencies in the financial market. For this reason, the expert sees no reason to create significant savings in the domestic currency. He believes that the outlined increase in the euro is just the beginning of the strengthening of this currency, and by April 2021 it will be possible to see three-digit figures in quotations.

Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at BCS World of Investments, believes: despite the fact that the euro is now growing in value, the ruble has every chance of getting good support, including from the Central Bank. On the other hand, in his opinion, the volume of sales of the domestic currency today is not so large that the exchange rate dynamics under the influence of this factor would change. At the same time, this is an important signal that could create appropriate market sentiment and support the ruble in the spring of 2021.

The vision of specialists from the Bank of Russia and Sberbank

Recent statements by representatives of the Central Bank and Sberbank may serve as a clue to what will happen to the euro in April 2021. The Central Bank of Russia announced that the markets may experience increased volatility in the future, and the reason for this is at risk of a change of power in America. If this happens, then how long this situation will last, and whether significant changes in the exchange rate will be observed in the spring of 2021, it is still impossible to say for sure.

The head of the Accounts Chamber, Alexei Kudrin, said that the position of the ruble will remain stable, and the main financial institutions of Russia will contribute to this by their actions. Despite this, Kudrin emphasized that in the presence of large financial savings and no need for spending, it is better to convert savings into European currency or dollars. He advised keeping only small savings in Russian currency.

Sberbank CEO German Gref is optimistic and claims that the ruble can strengthen its position against the European currency. He believes that many underestimate him because the currency has good potential. True, at the same time, he emphasizes that the strengthening of the position of the national currency will depend on the situation with the coronavirus and the stability of the political and economic factors that are relevant in the world.

Despite the fact that financial and economic problems and instability are now observed all over the world, the Russian economy is experiencing truly large-scale problems. It may take at least a year to recover. This is what German Gref thinks.

All this allows us to conclude that, both at the beginning of 2021 and in April, one will hardly have to expect a significant strengthening of the ruble. It seems more likely that the euro quotes will increase against the Russian currency. The only question is how significant this increase will be.

Average forecast from large Russian banks

Each large financial institution has its own analysts who provide forecasts for the quotations of the euro, dollar, ruble and other currencies. If we hold a certain average value, which is denoted by the financiers of Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank and Russian Standard Bank, then the value of the euro at the beginning of April is equal to 143, 75, and 125, 18 rubles. - at the end of the month.

These quotes have been compiled taking into account forecasted factors. But, as you know, any external or internal economic impact can significantly affect the price of a currency. For convenience, we will combine the average rates named by banks and key Russian financiers in the table:

Average forecasts for the euro exchange rate in April 2021 from experts	At the beginning of the month, rub.	At the end of the month, rub.
From the financiers of Sberbank, VTB banks, Gazprombank and Russian Standard Bank	143, 75	125, 18
Analytical bureau PrognozEx	119, 52	111, 47

What strategy do foreign investors follow?

Let's find out what the key exchange players think about whether the currency in question will fall or rise in the spring. Large investors, especially those living in the United States, believe more in the reliability of the euro than in the dollar. This is evidenced by polls conducted by various publications, including Bloomberg.

In general, investors abroad were divided into three groups. About half believe that the growth of the European currency will be at least 8% and break the record over the past 6 years.

Representatives of the second group of investors are confident that the euro will continue to grow in value, and therefore in April it will add at least 1.5% to the current quotes. At the same time, they believe that growth will be moderate, and one should not expect significant benefits from investments in euros.

Finally, the third, the smallest group, is confident that the euro will either fall slightly against the background of the dollar, or will remain at about the same level for several months. Investors cite the impending presidential election as the basis for such judgments. It is not known what they can lead to in economic and general political terms.

Analysis of the economic situation in the eurozone

The analysis of the situation in Europe and the actions of the European Central Bank should be taken into account in order to make the most accurate forecasts for the exchange rate for April 2021. Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank, recently announced that the main focus of the financial institution in the near future on the inflation rate.

Previously, the European Central Bank focused on the interests of large financial institutions and banks. Today he began to pay attention to the real economic sector. The inflation target, according to experts, will be available as early as January 2021. All other issues still require more detailed elaboration.

Outcomes

1. If we analyze in general the forecasts of financial analysts from Russian public and private financial institutions, we can conclude that the euro quotes against the ruble will grow in early April 2021 and that the rate will gradually decline by the end of the month.
2. According to all the forecasts cited, the euro will not fall, on the contrary, it will overcome the three-digit mark.
3. According to various sources, quotations are called in the range from 119 to 145 rubles. for the euro.