What will be the euro exchange rate in March 2021

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-01-12 17:37

The financial instability caused by the coronavirus pandemic has affected all world currencies. What the euro exchange rate will be in March 2021 is of particular concern to the owners of foreign currency deposits. What experts say about this, what predictions they give - find out further.

What affects the euro exchange rate

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This currency is considered the least predictable and unstable among the rest. The reasons for this:

1. Dependence of the euro on the economies of several countries. On the one hand, the presence of a unified monetary system makes life easier for people living in the European Union. On the other hand, internal crises and conflicts between members of the association affect the overall state of the currency. Thus, the announcement of the UK about the imminent exit from the EU led to a decrease in the value of the euro.
2. Coronavirus pandemic. Due to the decline in production and international cooperation in some countries, the national currency has become more popular.
3. Dependence of the euro on the dollar. Recently, the United States began to weaken its national currency in the expectation that this would have a positive effect on the country's economy. Based on this, it is expected that the price for the euro will also decrease.

Consequently, due to the large number of factors affecting the euro, it is not easy to forecast its development in 2021. However, representatives of leading Russian banks have already expressed their opinion on this matter.

The value of the euro in the first half of 2021

At the start of next year, the price of the euro will fluctuate at around 100 rubles. Starting in January, analysts expect a gradual appreciation of the currency, which will peak at the end of the first quarter. Opinions differ on what the euro exchange rate will be in March 2021:

• Sberbank expects 145 rubles per unit;
• VTB forecasts 144.8 rubles;
• Gazprombank indicated the price at 143.44 rubles;
• Transcapitalbank named the maximum for the euro at 144.87 rubles.

Experts from the economic forecasting agency have a different opinion. They believe that the starting cost of the euro at the beginning of the year will be 91.5 rubles. While these analysts predict a slight rise in price, they do not predict a jump as fast as banks.

By the end of April, the euro is already depreciating. Some predict it will draw 18% by the end of the month. According to experts, at the beginning of summer its cost will approach 100 rubles per unit.

How much will the currency cost in the second half of 2021

Representatives of Sberbank, Gazprombank and a number of other organizations expect a slight increase in the rate in August or September. Then his fall will continue. According to forecasts, by December, the single European currency will fall to the following values:

• 62 rubles (UniCredit);
• 60 rubles (Gazprombank);
• 61, 63 rubles (VTB);
• 61, 88 rubles (Transcapitalbank);
• 64, 33 (OTP);
• 72 rubles (Sberbank).

One of the highest rates for the euro by December is shown by APECON (84, 64 rubles). Experts from Monetary Resource adhere to a similar picture. They do not expect a big jump in the spring, stopping only at 94.44 rubles.

Analysts agree with the version of a gradual depreciation throughout the year. At the end of the first half of the year, the price is indicated at 87.56 rubles, as the minimum is the cost of 82.56 rubles. However, by the end of December, a slight rise in price is expected, which will almost bring the euro to the level of the end of June - 87.08 rubles.

Therefore, in the best scenario for depositors, the difference in price at the end of the year will not be more than 5%. The worst case scenario involves a fall in value by 10% per month with slight slowdowns in certain periods.

In other versions, a smoother decline in prices to a minimum mark by the end of the year is expected. The most pessimistic analysts say that the euro will soon become the least attractive to investors.

Euro exchange rate by month - table

If we compare the opinions of individual experts, we get the following forecast:

Month	Exchange rate at the end of the month rubles / euro	Month
January	122, 77	January
February	136, 01	February
March	143, 75	March

It does not take into account the opinion of organizations whose vision differs from the version presented by the banks.

The further fate of the euro

Some of the analysts are going further, trying to forecast the euro rate for 2022. Already from the beginning of the year, its positions will be weaker even in comparison with the upcoming January, and the outlined decline will continue.

The trend will be beneficial for Russians planning tourist or work visits to European countries. But for people who use currency to earn money, this option does not inspire optimism.

What should depositors do

If you rely on the official forecasts of banks, then depositors should take advantage of the peaks in the price expected in early April and late August in order to transfer deposits to another currency. There is an opinion that timely conversion is a chance to get out of the currency crisis with the least possible losses. Otherwise, there is a risk of significant loss of savings due to a stable depreciation of the exchange rate.

It should be borne in mind that not everyone shares the official forecast. Many people assess the stability of the euro based on past experience.

So, over the past 12 years, it has almost tripled against the ruble, regardless of economic crises and sanctions. Therefore, some of the observers do not consider the information about the depreciation to be plausible.

Since none of the analysts can give an accurate forecast, investors should be prudent in this matter. Given the lack of a 100% guarantee, experts from UniCredit do not recommend completely abandoning the currency. They propose to keep up to 20% of savings in euros in order to achieve diversification of risks.

Outcomes

Although experts from banks and independent agencies name different indicators, they agree on what will happen to the euro in March 2021. In one way or another, a currency jump is expected, followed by a decline with small fluctuations in value. The maximum of the named rates is 145 rubles per currency unit. A lower price per euro is forecasted by December - 60 rubles.

When assessing the accuracy of forecasts, it should be borne in mind that the euro is one of the most unpredictable currencies. Its stability is influenced by the economic condition of a dozen countries. The forecasts presented by banks and other financial institutions are based on current trends and factors weakening the European Union.

Time will tell whether the euro will fall or rise. It is possible that instead of the decline expected by banks, the strengthening of positions, characteristic of the past decade, will continue.