When will the peak of the coronavirus in Russia

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 14:00

Russian media pay a lot of attention every day to the latest data on the spread of coronavirus in Russia. To date, the official number of infected people has exceeded 5, 3 thousand people. Experts' forecasts are ambiguous, the opinions of specialists when there will be a peak in the Russian Federation are contradictory.

Country situation and basis for assumption

According to the operational headquarters for the fight against coronavirus, as of April 5, there are 5,387 people in Russia who have been diagnosed with coronavirus.

However, if on April 2, more than 770 people were added to the total number of cases, as of April 5, the number of new patients decreased and amounted to 658 cases. There are not many reasons for particular optimism:

1. The overall mortality rate rose from 0.8 to 0.91%. From 26, the country moved to 22nd place in the world in terms of the number of cases. But in terms of mortality, it is still in the bottom third of the anti-rating, among countries with significantly fewer cases.
2. The main foci of the spread of the deadly infection in Russia are concentrated in Moscow, Moscow, Leningrad and Sverdlovsk regions and the Komi Republic.
3. The strange geography of the infection makes experts assume that the majority of the sick arrived in the country from abroad, these are people who have returned from business or tourist trips.
4. The country's government adopted a new package of documents tightening measures for non-compliance with the self-isolation regime, violation of the quarantine prescribed to citizens after returning from abroad or after contact with infected people.

Despite the measures taken to reduce the possibility of the spread of a new type of pneumonia, experts' forecasts for 2020 are extremely restrained, uncertain and vague. There is no noticeable unanimity even in the approximate timeframes. However, most of them are still more optimistic than the opinions of their colleagues abroad.

Approximate dates for the peak of the pandemic - expert opinions

Most experts are sure that the peak of coronavirus in Russia will occur at the end of the first - the beginning of the second decade of April. Until recently, scientists assumed that the number of cases would be insignificant, but the reality has refuted this opinion. And then, and now, expert forecasts predict the attenuation of the infection by May.

This opinion is based on the statistics of developing complications in Russia: the coronavirus is mild. The lethal outcome is observed mainly in elderly people with concomitant chronic diseases.

However, expert forecasts about the peak of the epidemic in 2020 are not specific in terms of timing:

1. V. Nikiforov, chief infectious disease specialist at FMBA, is confident that the peak of coronavirus in Russia will be passed no later than April 10. This opinion is based on scientific knowledge about ARVI. The epidemiological standard defines the time to peak and its gradual decline in 2-2.5 months. Elementary calculations lead to mid-April, when warming occurs.
2. Professor A. Altstein, quoted by RIA Novosti, said that it is difficult to predict the exact date when the coronavirus will peak. He is confident that the epidemic in Russia will decline in early to mid-May, but did not rule out such a possibility by the end of the second or third month of spring. Much, according to the professor, depends on the careful observance of the quarantine rules by the population, limiting movement between areas of potential spread. The scientist admitted the likelihood of an unforeseen development of the scenario due to the peculiarities of the virus operating in Russia in 2020.
3. A. Lukashev, director of the Institute of Vector-borne Diseases at Sechenov University, is confident that it is safe to say that even the most negative prognosis, when the incidence of coronavirus will peak, is the end of May. If it were not for the timely measures taken in Russia, in the second half of April the country would have been approximately the same as in Italy. And so you can expect that the peak incidence will be in ten days. More precisely, when there will be ups and downs, you can after the decade of self-isolation has passed.
4. A. Burkin, deputy director of the NCC of otorhinolaryngology at the FMBA, is confident that the peak incidence in Russia in 2020 will come in a week. This is a relatively recent forecast based on data available to FMBA. This information was aired on the "60 minutes" program on the "Russia" TV channel.
5. A. Burkin, like A. Lukashev, is sure that the main component in the forecasts about the expected peak of the epidemic is the observance by citizens of the anti-epidemic measures taken. The same opinion is shared by the press secretary of the Russian President D. Peskov, who said that the approximate nature of the forecasts for him is beyond doubt, and everything depends on how effective the self-isolation regime turns out to be.

Anna Popova, the head of Rospotrebnadzor, said during a briefing that there are no unexplained coronavirus outbreaks in Russia, as has been observed in China, the United States and Italy. All cases of the disease have a logical explanation. Almost half of the infections occurred by contact, the rest contracted the coronavirus while abroad.

Russia, unlike some other countries, received its citizens and provided them with all kinds of assistance. Failure to comply with preventive measures and quarantine could well become the cause of contagious infections in people with whom the patients communicated.

Summarize

1. Experts predict a peak incidence in mid-April - early May.
2. In Russia, measures were taken in a timely manner to spread the infection.
3. Epidemiologists are confident that if they were not there, the country would have expected an Italian scenario.
4. There is no doubt that the coronavirus was brought by sick people from abroad.
5. A more precise timing is impossible, the peak will depend on the population's adherence to preventive measures and the characteristics of the virus.