When is the peak of coronavirus expected in Moscow?

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 14:00

Russian media daily publish not only the number of new cases of the disease in Moscow, but also the forecasts and opinions of specialists in the field of medicine. They are controversial even in the timing of determining when the coronavirus will peak in 2020.

Situation in the metropolitan area

As of April 5, 2020, more than 5, 3 thousand people infected with coronavirus were officially registered in Russia. The lion's share of them falls on the metropolitan metropolis, and this is not surprising.

Studies have shown that a significant part of patients with a dangerous virus contracted a contagious route, namely: charter flights to Moscow brought Russians stranded abroad. Some of them had the coronavirus in an incubation or latent period, and there were those who refused to comply with quarantine.

As a result, as of April 5, there are 3,893 patients with COVID-19 in Moscow. Over the past day, 536 new cases have been added, but this is better than on April 2, when the number of identified patients increased by seven hundred. The number of those who recovered increased by 16%, however, the number of deaths increased by 7 people. In general, the percentage of deaths in the capital is 0.1% less than in the country.

Today, according to the Zvezda TV channel, more patients were discharged from the hospital in Kommunarka than those who were admitted with suspicion of a dangerous diagnosis. Denis Protsenko, the head physician of an advanced outpost in the fight against infection, predicted the possible peak of the coronavirus next week, that is, from March 30 to April 5 on March 26. He voiced this opinion in an interview with a RIA Novosti correspondent. The exact forecast when it is expected is the first days of April.

Other opinions on the increase in incidence

Vasily Kupreichik, head of the Center for Complex Diagnosis at a network of private clinics, in his opinion, when the peak is expected, parted with a practicing colleague who deals with the dynamics of the disease on a daily basis. According to V. Kupreichik, the peak of the coronavirus in Moscow and in Russia as a whole is expected in a month.

The Dni. Ru edition persistently brings to the attention of its readers the idea of the total spread of the pandemic, the unpreparedness of the capital for a large number of new patients. At the very end, the possibility of a successful outcome is still stipulated (while taking all measures of sanitary and epidemiological protection to reduce the likelihood of transmission of COVID-19).

1. V. In Putin, informing the population about the extension of the self-isolation regime until the end of April 2020, he referred to the opinion of virologists, who are sure that the peak of the epidemic has not been passed. Judging by the term for which the extension has been made, there is no consensus among experts on this issue.
2. The press secretary of the Russian President explained that the development of the situation is largely determined by the thoroughness of compliance with anti-epidemic measures and the quarantine regime. Therefore, it is premature to talk about exact dates.
3. The Federal Medical and Biological Agency more accurately named the period when the number of cases of the disease in Moscow could reach its dangerous climax. It was explained here that an increase in the number of cases does not always mean an increase in the dynamics of the epidemic. In this case, the increase in the number of infected is explained by a more advanced testing methodology, an expanded ability to detect coronavirus with new tests. According to A. Burkin, a representative of the FMBA, the peak of the coronavirus in the capital should be expected next week, from April 6.
4. V. Nikiforov, the chief infectious disease specialist of the same scientific institution, fully agrees with the opinion of the plenipotentiary representative of the Federal Agency. He is confident that the peak of the coronavirus will take place no later than the period from 6 to 10 April. This is evidenced by the experience of work with acute respiratory viral infections. All of them are similar in their standards, so that the timing can be determined using the method of calculations adopted in virology.

A. Lukashev, a specialist from Sechenov University, in his interview does not name the exact timing of the peak of the coronavirus in Moscow and Russia. However, unlike V. Kupreichik, he is confident in the correctness of the chosen tactics, the installation of sanitary and epidemiological barriers to the coronavirus in Russia and in its capital.

The most negative forecast, in his opinion, is for the end of May, but there will be no repetition of the Italian scenario in the capital. You just need to follow all the measures already started and bring the fight against coronavirus to its logical end, as in China.

Summarize

1. Most experts are inclined to believe that the peak of the coronavirus in Moscow will be in April.
2. The exact date is called from April 6.
3. There are pessimistic assurances about the spread of the coronavirus and optimistic ones about the impossibility of repeating the Italian scenario.
4. The most negative, but unlikely forecast is a peak at the end of May.
5. But the opinion of the majority of experts points to the 2-3rd week of April.