Dollar in 2022: expert forecasts

2024 Author: James Gerald | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-01-18 00:05

The specialists make cautious assumptions about the further movement of currencies, including the dollar, on the world market. In 2022, according to experts, the behavior of the “American” will be determined by many diverse factors, so it is important to follow the latest news.

Why has the ruble depreciated

Last year, the value of the Russian currency against the dollar fell by 20%, which was associated with the collapse of the OPEC + deal and the consequences of the pandemic. Also, a significant contribution to the weakening of the ruble was made by the geopolitical factor associated with growing tensions in international relations and uncertainty about the transit of power in the United States.

This year, experts expect the situation in the global economy to improve, which will significantly support the indicators of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation. At the same time, there are serious risks of an increase in anti-Russian rhetoric on the part of Western countries, in particular, the United States, and this, despite the improvement in fundamental indicators, may exert strong pressure on the ruble.

What will support the dollar

What will happen to the dollar exchange rate in the near future depends on the development of the situation in the field of economics and geopolitics. A significant strengthening of the dollar against the ruble will occur if one or more scenarios are realized:

1. Correction in world markets. It can be triggered by problems with immunization, the emergence of new strains and an outbreak of coronavirus. In this situation, investors turn to the safe-haven currencies - the dollar and the euro, selling off the currencies of developing countries.
2. Strengthening anti-Russian sanctions. The White House administration, led by Joe Biden, may introduce a new package of sanctions against the Russian Federation. The escalation of the conflict between the two nuclear powers is unlikely to happen, but geopolitical tensions will increase.
3. Low key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. It is more profitable for investors to buy foreign exchange assets with a high interest rate. The greater the difference between the rates in Russia and the United States, the higher the likelihood of investing in the Russian economy. If the rate is cut, foreign investors give up Russian assets, which negatively affects the exchange rate of the national currency.

Interesting! Unemployment Benefit 2022 and Latest News

The head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Elvira Nabiullina announced the end of the rate cut cycle.

What will support the Russian ruble

Despite the strong pressure, the Russian currency has every chance of strengthening. The following factors will contribute to this:

1. Recovery of demand for risky assets. The world's largest regulators do not plan to raise key rates, which currently have zero values: in Japan - minus 0.1%, in the UK - 0.1%, in the States - 0.25%. In such conditions, the need for risky assets, which includes the ruble, is growing, which has a positive effect on the exchange rate of the national currency.
2. Recovery of oil quotes. The price of Brent crude rose 200% after the market collapse in the first quarter of last year. According to analysts from the US Energy Information Administration, in 2021-2022 the demand for black gold will grow, and its average annual price will be $ 48.5 per barrel.

In addition, Russian and foreign experts expect Russia's GDP to grow by 2, 3-2, 7%, which will also have a favorable effect on the value of the national currency.

The ruble will strengthen

Reputable ratings agency Fitch predicts the dollar will fall in 2022. According to the experts' forecast, as reported in the latest PRIMPRESS news, USD will be traded around 69 rubles. for a unit.

From the point of view of Fitch analysts, the use of effective anti-crisis measures will contribute to the growth of the Russian economy. Their implementation will prevent a further drop in household incomes and halt the decline in the number of jobs.

In addition, in the second half of the year, a significant change in the situation on the world markets for the better is expected, which will lead to an increase in the indicators of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation. According to analysts at FC Uralsib, the trade balance will reach $ 124 billion, while the current account surplus will be only $ 68 billion.

Interesting! Financial Horoscope for 2022 by Zodiac Signs

The ruble will weaken

Despite the recovery of the global economy, analysts predict an increase in the outflow of foreign capital from Russia, which will lead to an increase in the price of USD in 2021 - up to 78 rubles. per unit, in 2022 - 81.8 rubles.

The Minister of the Eurasian Economic Commission, ex-adviser to the head of state, well-known Russian economist Sergei Glazyev has no doubts about the fall of the ruble. He is confident that the country will face a powerful devaluation, which will lead to an increase in the dollar.

Preliminary forecast of the dollar rate for 2022 from independent experts

To make a forecast, the experts used the latest news concerning the dynamics of the movement of currencies in the world market. The experts of the independent agency expressed their assumptions in the table.

Month	Cost USD at the beginning of the month (before the 10th day)	Cost USD at the end of the month (after the 20th day)	Direction
January	75, 39	77, 59	Enhancement
February	77, 59	79, 27	Enhancement
March	79, 27	80, 97	Enhancement
April	80, 97	79, 05	Downgrade
May	79, 05	77, 51	Downgrade
June	77, 51	76, 01	Downgrade
July	76, 01	72, 83	Downgrade
August	72, 83	77, 97	Enhancement
September	77, 97	78, 85	Enhancement
October	78, 85	80, 55	Enhancement
November	80, 55	81, 74	Enhancement
December	81, 74	83, 86	Enhancement

The indicated dollar value is approximate, predicted based on events and factors collected by the agency's specialists. In the future, the calculations can be adjusted depending on changes in the situation, including the geopolitical one.

Outcomes

Analysts' opinions on the dollar exchange rate in 2022 are contradictory, as there is uncertainty in world markets and in the geopolitical sphere.

The majority of Russian specialists, as well as experts from foreign rating agencies, highly assess the chances of the Russian economy for recovery. This will provide significant support to the ruble.

The further spread of coronavirus infection, the emergence of new strains, the ineffectiveness of vaccinations and the strengthening of anti-Russian rhetoric can reduce the attractiveness of risky assets.